Nodirbek Abdusattorov, 19 is ranked #11 on the live ratings list at 2700chess.com with a new career high rating of 2750. He is currently only 12 rating points behind Anish Giri ranked #5. Given this trajectory, will he be ranked within the top 5 at any point in 2024?
This market resolves YES if Abdusattorov is ranked sole 5th or higher on 2700chess.com classical ratings at any point in 2024. Shared 5th won't qualify.
It will resolve NO if Abdusattorov is not ranked at least sole 5th or higher at any point in 2024.
It will be voided due to force majeure events as deemed fit by me
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@danwahl nah, the intent of the market is pretty clear and i'm not going to resolve it based on some edge case.
@diadematus it does seem pretty clear: "This market resolves YES if Abdusattorov is ranked sole 5th or higher on 2700chess.com classical ratings at any point in 2024."
This criteria was definitely met. If you want more evidence of the ranking I can try to gather some.
It'd be different if it said something like "is ranked sole 5th or higher given the criteria that 2700chess.com purports to use for its classical rankings" or whatever. But it's pretty explicit that the site itself "at any point" is the source of truth.
FWIW I think it's well a pretty well written market overall! But I do think you have to handle this edge case (including other scenarios where you might not see changes on the site).
@danwahl the keyword here is "ranked" which has a subjective meaning that's not just "listed as". if FIDE released a monthly rating list with you listed as world number 1 nobody would think you're "ranked" world number 1. this is not even a legitimate edge case but more like a pedantic point that makes no sense in the spirit of the market. At any rate, Abdusattorov will be making top 5 very shortly and making all of this moot.
@diadematus I definitely recommend including something like this in future markets, so that the criteria better matches your spirit/intent
related market for Keymer: https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-vincent-keymer-be-ranked-in-th-7ae0579912dd