Will any chess player born after 1st January 2004 reach a live rating of 2800 in 2024?
Dec 31

Resolves YES if any chess player born after 1st January 2004 reaches a classical rating of 2800 or more on 2700chess.com. Resolves NO otherwise. Market is valid until 31st December 2024

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Nodirbek Abdusattorov now only 35 points away...2800+ TPR over his last ~40 games. Needs to go +8 against 2700-level opposition for the rest of the year to get there. Seems likely to me!

@diadematus 35 points is a lot at this level. Very few people have achieved it and now when there is rating deflation it will be even harder. I am a big Nodirbek fan and I would love if he did it, but I don't think it's likely in 2024.

@Weezing Anish Giri and Alireza have done it and Nodirbek is no worse than them so he certainly should be able to do it on general grounds even with deflation. My basic theory is prodigies crossing 2800 (Alireza, Carlsen) don't do it by accumulating points slow and steady, they usually have a big leap, catch fire and go on a small rampage even if they later slow down. Alireza was 2750ish in Sep 2021 and 2800 by Feb 2022. Nodirbek has already shown a bit of that in just one tournament in 2024. On the same basis, I don't rule out Pragg or one of the Indian prodigies coming really close. On more practical terms...Nodirbek will probably play 50 more games this year against say 2680 opposition, to bet against him getting to 2800 is to bet that he will be less than +12 in that time.

@diadematus Not exactly sure what you mean with 2680 opposition, but if he played 50 games against players with average rating 2680 and won 12 and drew 38, he would gain 0 points.

@Weezing ha, that is what i meant but my math is apparently way off. so he would need to be + 21 vs. 2680 opposition to get to 2800...which seems...tough. I believe in my overall hypothesis though...one of the. 2750s/2760 juniors is bound to go on a streak of good results (like Nodirbek just did) that will bring him to something like 2785 then it's a coin flip imo