https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Steel_Chess_Tournament_2024
Masters standings | Tata Steel Chess Tournament
The Tata Steel Chess Tournament 2024 is scheduled to be the 86th edition of the annual chess tournament held in Wijk aan Zee. It will be held from 12 January to 28 January 2024.
The field of 14 players in the Masters section is set to include the defending champion Anish Giri, and both the defending World Chess Champion and Women's World Chess Champion, Ding Liren and Ju Wenjun, with Ding set to play his first event since May 2023 after taking a hiatus from professional chess due to illness.
This market seeks to predict the overall winner of the Master's section of the tournament.
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve based on the player who wins the Masters section of the Tata Steel Chess Tournament 2024.
The winner is determined by the official tournament standings as announced and published at the conclusion of the event.
Tiebreak Rules:
In the event of a tie at the top of the tournament standings, the market will resolve in favor of the player who wins based on the official tiebreak criteria set by the tournament organizers.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,121 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,997 | |
| 3 | Ṁ973 | |
| 4 | Ṁ479 | |
| 5 | Ṁ457 |
People are also trading
@benshindel Thanks, you also did very well. If Nodirbek didnt win I would win 2k+ for any possible player I think. Then I was able to get another 500-1k in this final day.
@diadematus Gukesh is worse than others in speed chess, but his chances are definitely higher than 1%. Especially in very low number of tiebreaker games where variability is high.
Bookmakers think this market (mostly me) is too confident on Nodirbek but agree Giri is the second favorite https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/tata-steel-chess-masters/winner
@diadematus I think what both you and oddsmakers are not taking into account is how must-win games factor into the standards odds of an outcome between two players: playing for a win decreases draw odds but also increases loss odds
@benshindel what both of us know that is decisive: Nodirbek has got that dog in him (Magnus has basically confirmed this). Seriously though, my bets are purely vibes-based so shorting me may be a wise strategy ;)
@benshindel it's actually 2.25 for Nodirbek, 4 for Giri and 7 for Gukesh implying a 45%, 25% and 15% chance respectively. Even Pragg has a better chance, which I agree with. If shorting Gukesh here was worth it I would absolutely do it
Going into the last 3 rounds:
Gukesh: 6.5pts, White vs. Alireza, White vs. Pragg, Black vs. Parham
Nodirbek: 6.5pts, White vs. Ju Wenjun, Black vs. Vidit, White vs. Donchenko
Giri: 6pts, White vs. Nepo, Black vs. JVF, White vs. Max Warmerdam
Pragg: 6pts: White vs. Donchenko, Black vs. Gukesh, White vs. Alireza
@diadematus Ppl are over-indexing on strength of opposition here… but I’m happy to bet against Nodirbek at these odds
@benshindel i'm all in Nodirbek because of exactly those reasons. He has farmed the lower half of the standings pretty effectively. I'm reasonably sure he goes 2.5/3. At least >70% chance. Gukesh OTOH has a chance to lose one of his games. Giri is the most plausible alternative imho