FIDE Candidates Tournament Open Section - Round 1 prop bets
24
273
2.1K
resolved Apr 4
Resolved
YES
Four draws
Resolved
YES
Abasov-Nepo is first to finish
Resolved
YES
Someone will be in severe time pressure (<10 minutes on the clock with 10+ moves to make until move 40).
Resolved
50%
N*25% where N is the maximum number on boards on which white's first move is the same.
Resolved
10%
N*5% where N is the minimum number of half-moves needed to distinguish all games by looking only at the N first half-moves.
Resolved
NO
Four decisive games
Resolved
NO
A rating underdog wins a game
Resolved
NO
All games reach at least 45 moves
Resolved
NO
Caruana-Nakamura is decisive
Resolved
NO
At least 3 wins by white
Resolved
NO
The Berlin defence is played
Resolved
NO
1.d4 is the most common opening move
Resolved
NO
Someone wil take at least 10 minute think for one of the first 10 moves.
Resolved
NO
Someone will be in a sole lead after all matches are over.

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@traders any interest in a similar market for round 2? i struggled to come up with good prop bets so i wasn't particularly impressed by this market

@diadematus I guess I misread your comment as asking someone else to make the market so I made one (https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-round-2-of-fide-candid). Hopefully that's ok.

As for me I enjoyed it, but it was not possible to add more option during the tournament, which could be fun.

dang, i really thought there'd be four decisive games lol

i want to resolve the market but dont understand @Mich 's responses. Any help @traders ?

@diadematus I'm sorry but I don't really see what's unclear with them. 2 games started with 1.e4 and 2 games started with 1.e4 so given a first move, there's at most 2 games starting with it, "N*25% where N is the maximum number on boards on which white's first move is the same." indeed resolves 50% because N = 2 for that question.

Among the four games, one started with 1.d4 Nf6 ; one with 1.d4 d5 ; one with 1.e4 e5 and one with 1.e4 c5. So after the first half-move, some games are not distinguishable. But after 2 half-moves, we can distinguish all-games looking only at the moves played : 1.d4 Nf6 only mathches Avsov vs Nepo ; 1.d4 d5 <=> Gukesh vs Vidit ; 1.e4 e5 <=> Firou vs Pragg and 1.e4 c5 <=> Caruana vs Nakamura. So "N*5% where N is the minimum number of half-moves needed to distinguish all games by looking only at the N first half-moves." resolves 2*5% = 10%

But I see you already resolved them with what I had in mind.

1.d4 is the most common opening move

What if there is a tie?

@Weezing then it's not the most common move

N*25% where N is the maximum number on boards on which white's first move is the same.

@Mich huh?

@diadematus For example if 1.e4 is played on 3 boards and 1.Nf3 is played on 1 board, then N = 3 so it resolves to 75%. If all four games start with 1.c4 (please no), then N = 4 and it resolves YES ; if all four games start with a different move, then N = 1 and it resolves to 25%, and so on

N*25% where N is the maximum number OF boards on which white's first move is the same. I made a typo, but it was more than an hour ago so I can’t edit the question.

Someone will be in severe time pressure (<10 minutes on the clock with 10+ moves to make until move 40).

<10 minutes on the clock after move 40 doesn’t count ?

@Mich correct