If Manifold eliminated all trading fees, how much does trading increase month over month?
11
840Ṁ360
resolved Oct 1
100%3%
+100%
14%Other
54%
0%
11%
+25%
4%
+50%
4%
+75%
3%
+200%
1.7%
+175%
1.6%
+150%
0.5%
+125%
3%
-25%
0.8%
+1000%

MM is considering eliminating trading fees. See https://manifold.markets/SG/if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading.

Comments on the above market speculate as to whether eliminating trading fees would drive increased trading. Although we can't isolate exactly what change would be due to eliminating trading fees, it's worth tracking.

This market will resolve to the month over month change of Trades in the Daily Activity chart on https://manifold.markets/analytics, calculated as the average number of trades made in the 30 days after fees are eliminated minus the average number of trades made in the 30 days including and before fees are eliminated, rounded to nearest 25 percentage points.

Example if trading fees were eliminated Apr 4th:

* Daily average trades Mar 6th - Apr 4th (inclusive): 500

* Daily average trades Apr 5th - May 4th (inclusive): 600

* Month over month change = (600-500)/500 = 20%, rounded to nearest 25% = +25%

Acceptable answers: increments of 25 percentage points, i.e. -25%, 0%, +25%, +50%

If fees are not removed a month before the close date, this will resolve N/A.

Close date updated to 2022-09-23 11:59 pm

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Average number of trades per day from Aug 25th to Sep 23rd was 10,668, a 103.78% increase, rounding to +100%. Resolving as such.

Manifold went feeless on August 24th, 2022: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/994321335419420832/1012100175478669312

I've updated the end date to Sept 23rd.

According to https://manifold.markets/analytics, in the 30 days prior, from July 26th to Aug 24th (inclusive), there was an average of 5,235 fees per day. This will be the reference point for the subsequent 30 days of tracking. As an example, if there are 2,000 trades per day from August 25th - September 23rd, that would be a -62% drop and resolve to -50%.

Agreed with Yev. Also, new market just dropped: https://manifold.markets/Adam/if-manifold-didnt-eliminate-all-tra
Sometimes a website fizzles. Might have been -50% without this action!
You can cancel out mana going in a circle, measure the extent to which mana flows into more prescient hands.
If there are no taxes, nothing is stopping people from manipulating this market...
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