Will Donald Trump call another democratically elected leader of a country a dictator before the end of his current term?
18
100Ṁ653
2029
72%
chance

Recently, Donald Trump called the democratically elected president of Ukraine, Volodomyr Zelenskyy, a dictator. He has since backtracked on this, stating he "can't believe [he] said that"

Will he baselessly call another democratically elected leader of a country a dictator (or an unambiguous variation such as 'tyrant', 'autocrat', 'totalitarian', 'führer' or 'despot') before the end of his current term? A verified (reported on credible media), public recording must exist. Will not resolve YES on third-party testimony, rumors or hearsay.

For the purposes of this market, countries listed as 'authoritarian' in the most recent at the time Economist Democracy Index (notable 2024 mentions: Russia, Venezuela) will not count, even if they claim to have democratically elected their leader.

His current term ends when he steps down, or on the 29th of January, 12pm ET, whichever occurs first.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

How would you constrain the base rate here?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules