Will the CPI increase by 1.3% or more in July 2022?

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resolved Aug 12

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 1.3% increase in June 2022, and a 1.0% increase in May 2022: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

They will release the data for July 2022 on Aug 10th at 8:30am. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US BLS reports that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose by 1.3% or more in July 2022.

(Note: If the US BLS releases the same report on a different date, this market is still valid.)

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75 Trades

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predicted NO

One more market that isn't resolved?

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

0.0% increase: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

predicted NO

@MattBrooks Hmm… betting after outcome is known? 🤔

predicted NO

@BramStolk 😁
Is this against the rules/norms?
Idk if it's in bad taste or if it's just more data into the market?

predicted NO

@MattBrooks Not sure? But it did prompt me to set my deadlines better. E.g. when creating a market for a race, I now set the deadline one day before raceday.

predicted NO

@BramStolk Does it change the payoff for the ongoing participants?

predicted NO

@MP Not sure?

predicted NO

@MP In this market type, no, it doesn't change the payoff for people who already have bets. You're just soaking anyone with an open offer to make a bet, which is usually just the automated market maker but includes anyone with an open limit order.

predicted NO

@WilliamEhlhardt Who is the automated market maker?

predicted NO

@MP Manifold Markets itself

predicted NO

It is 0.0% so this market can be resolved to NO.

@BramStolk Thank you!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Okay, I'm at my risk limit, so I'm gonna post this and see who clues me in: https://kalshi.com/events/CPI-22JUL/markets/CPI-22JUL-T1.0 Kalshi seems to have a <3% chance of >1.0%. What am I missing?