Resolves based on the data available here. If the percent rise for 2025 is higher, this resolves YES.
Update 2025-12-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the January to January percentage change in CPI-U (comparing January 2025 to January 2024, versus January 2024 to January 2023), unless a compelling argument is made to change this methodology.
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Potential clarification: As far as I can tell, on the BLS site the chart point for the "2024" vertical line corresponds to the January 2024 number, so unless someone makes a good case to change this, I will go off of the January 2024 to January 2025 and January 2025 to January 2026 percentage changes.
@polymathematic nice. i’m inclined to hope they’re just finalising data - the “no change” october fed markets haven’t moved much. but we’ll see
@brod yeah, I’ve read a few things today that have suggested it’s almost certainly about resource constraints (thanks, DOGE) and not political meddling. And really, I might have played it wrong anyway, ‘cause if there is political meddling it makes the inflation markets less likely to pay out, not more, I suppose.