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MANIFOLD
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight?
23
Ṁ550Ṁ1.2k
resolved Jan 24
Resolved
YES

Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer than 100 seconds to midnight by the end of January 2023.

Market context
Nuclear Risk
Non-AI Doom composite
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxB9dM0u4mU
The doomsday clock advanced 10 seconds closer to midnight, it is not at 90 seconds.

now* not not

Duplicated for 2024 with a bit more lead time.

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow-ac83f64b7c4e?r=TWFydGluUmFuZGFsbA

This seems reasonably likely given the war in Ukraine.

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36% chance
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33% chance
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42% chance
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11% chance
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