Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a new model on Pi Day 2024?
resolved Mar 15
Claude 3 announced
Mar 4

Last year GPT-4 and Claude were officially announced on March 14. Will a similar announcement be made by one of these top AI labs this Pi Day?

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I’m predicting that Grok will be released Thursday. (Won’t count for this market.)


smh why didn't Anthropic wait a week? unless… they don't want to be overshadowed by another announcement happening the same day??

To clarify, I wouldn’t count something like `gpt-4-0125-preview` as a new model, but I would count GPT-4.5.

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@derikk I assume any new capability model would count, right? If the full release of turbo had double the token count or rose 50 points in Elo on LMsys that would qualify. Capability increases not naming shcemes is most important imo.

@SamuelHvidager Good question. I think I’d count GPT-4 Turbo since this came with a new name and context length and a sizable increase in capabilities. But the fact that OpenAI draws the distinction between 4 and 4 Turbo in their documentation is relevant here. That being said the naming schemes and capabilities jumps seem to have lined up thus far.