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wave is just getting started with XBB.1.5.

Agree with others here that even if there is a real wave, probably it won't show up in the data—I think a main thing going on is lack of testing. You can probably get a better idea of real waves by looking at the sewage data. Here is the data for Berkeley CA (from https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/CalSuWers-Dashboard.aspx) which looks pretty flat lately in terms of confirmed cases.

@KatjaGrace I disagree. That presumes hospitalizations don't also spike. I think we are more likely going into the worst covid winter yet than the best. You can identify a wave just using sewer water. Testing completely unnecessary.

@KatjaGrace I should have said good point about the sewer water. Manifolding in traffic is inadvisable!

Seconding Adam; whether or not there's a real wave it's not going to get reported. I have lots of friends who are currently sick with COVID or something similar, and none of them are going to doctors or officially reporting it.

the criteria given seem unlikely in the time frame specified. Note that I think it's entirely possible that there will be more people with covid in the US than in some previous waves, in the time frame specified. My intuition is that case reporting has tanked, because "covid is over".

Will there be a fifth Covid wave in the US?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition