Will Nate Silver's 2024 general election model be released before the 1st Biden-Trump debate?

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resolved Jun 26

Resolved

YES

ALL

pretty straightforward...resolves yes if nate silver publishes/announces his model on substack before the debate starts, NO otherwise

Politics

US Politics

2024 US Presidential Election

Joe Biden

Nate Silver

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bought Ṁ100 YES

He said he's going for Wednesday, which gives him a day of leeway to publish before the debate. Still not certain but seems likely

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/the-model-is-coming

Is he releasing a model? I sort of assumed his contract with the mouse would force him to sit out a cycle or two after leaving 538.

Yes, he owns the model itself (538 I believe is using a new model) and is releasing it through his blog, though I don't think it will be publicly available

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