Last price: 2024-May-17 $189.87
(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session since market creation (2024-May-02) during which the price stays above $190 (YES) or below $170 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:
Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $190
Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $170
Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)
1,000
3.00@traders Currently $192.68 and a low of $190.92, will resolve YES unless it falls below $190 at any point within the next 20 min.
Trading fees were insufficient for an additional M20 in subsidies.
Unfortunately I'm low on mana right now (I donated almost all and the M10k gift didn't last long) and can't justify spending M1k for these now that it's clear they're not profitable to make, so I won't be making the next step ($180 vs. $200). Congrats to the winners over the last year or so, and feel free to duplicate them if you want. Thanks all!
@deagol Thanks for running these markets!
Given that interest in them seems to have trailed off, probably better to take a break on these.
Sadly, Manifold is no longer providing M20 subsidy per new trader, and user bonuses are going away soon (I think on May 15). Us traders are now paying fat fees on our market-taking bets, half of which goes to creators. So far, it’s M1.81 here:
Since I don’t think I’ll ever earn back through such fees even a fraction of the initial M100 subsidy I put up, I will try to incentivize traders by adding them back to the market as additional subsidies. In fact, I will add back twice as much as I get shown by the interface, so all you degen traders can get them all back including Manifold’s cut at my expense, and I will add it upfront. So, I will now add M20 and if and when I see I’ve earned M10, then I will add another M20, and so on, up to M500 total including the initial M100 (in case this goes crazy which I highly doubt). Good luck to all!
