Will the “Chaos Theory n: resolves to logistic map iterated to the number of traders+1” market resolve to PROB>50%?
Basic
5
Ṁ51resolved Apr 17
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the referred market resolves to PROB>50%, and NO otherwise.
Please see the description on that market for its resolution details, since the market value alone should give no indication on how it might resolve, despite it being a self-resolving, deterministic resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ13 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
Related questions
Related questions
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
46% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
57% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
85% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
96% chance