Resolution criteria

The market will resolve to YES if Israel conducts any direct military attack, airstrike, missile launch, or drone strike targeting the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran at any point from July 1, 2026, through July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.

If no such direct attack on Iranian territory by Israel occurs during this timeframe, the market will resolve to NO.

• Definition of Attack: An attack is defined as an overt kinetic military action (e.g., airstrikes, missile strikes, naval bombardments, or ground raids) targeting locations within the internationally recognized sovereign borders of Iran.

• Attribution: The attack must be officially acknowledged by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or widely attributed to Israel by major international news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC). Cyberattacks, proxy clashes outside of Iran, or unconfirmed covert operations/sabotage do not suffice for a YES resolution.

• Target: Strikes on Iranian-backed forces (such as Hezbollah or Houthis) outside of Iran's borders (e.g., in Lebanon or Yemen) do not count as an attack on Iran.

• Source of Verification: Credible reports from Reuters, The Jerusalem Post, or updates from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Background

Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran War on February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States have engaged in periodic military exchanges with Iran. Although a temporary ceasefire was mediated in April 2026, hostilities have intermittently flared up, including a direct exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran on June 8, 2026. On July 7–8, 2026, the U.S. military launched fresh retaliatory strikes on Iranian military assets in the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on commercial tankers. With President Trump declaring the ceasefire "over", this market gauges whether Israel will launch direct attacks against Iranian soil during the month of July 2026, or remain focused on its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon.