3
Will the Dias Lab's report of an N-doped lutetium hydride near-ambient superconductor be replicated by 2025?
29
closes 2025
16%
chance

The report was published in Nature on March 8th, 2023:

Dasenbrock-Gammon, N., Snider, E., McBride, R. et al. Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride. Nature 615, 244–250 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-05742-0

This will resolve to yes if an independent replication is published in a reputable scientific journal before 01/01/2025.

For more background, see:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00599-9

https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/

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craftyvisage avatar
craftyvisage

Absence of near-ambient superconductivity in LuH2±xNy

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06162-w

QuantumObserver avatar
Quantum Observerbought Ṁ100 of NO

@craftyvisage

Admittedly an early pub, without review, but it doesn’t look good for the Dias lab

craftyvisage avatar
craftyvisage

@QuantumObserver

It has been peer reviewed, just not copy edited and proofed. The disclaimer on the paper reads:

This is a PDF file of a peer-reviewed paper that has been accepted for publication. Although unedited, the content has been subjected to preliminary formatting. Nature is providing this early version of the typeset paper as a service to our authors and readers. The text and figures will undergo copyediting and a proof review before the paper is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

QuantumObserver avatar
Quantum Observeris predicting NO at 11%

@craftyvisage Ah! My mistake, I misread that disclaimer

QuantumObserver avatar
Quantum Observeris predicting NO at 11%

@craftyvisage

So how does this resolve if there are one or more non-replications? Still wait until 2025?

craftyvisage avatar
craftyvisage

@QuantumObserver

Yes, wait until 2025.

TurnipPotato avatar
Turnip Potatobought Ṁ40 of YES

A hypothesis has been advanced in this paper that different isotopes of Nitrogen might have been used by the Dias Lab (15N) to dope their lutetium hydride compared to potentially (unverified guess) of 14N doping by Hai-hu Wen et. al. One of these isotopes has a negative NMM (15N), the other (14N) has a positive NMM. https://ej-physics.org/index.php/ejphysics/article/view/255

bildramer avatar
bildrameris predicting NO at 18%

This market is indeed free money. Being passingly familiar with RetractionWatch, and how hard it is to call out even blindingly obvious and not even very effortful fraud, it's easy to see all the signs. Scientists will hem and haw to be polite but "this other time very recently, some of the people in this team fabricated data" overrides any optimism about the paper. The chances of another team independently manipulating their data the same way, which can pretty much only happen intentionally, are minuscule.

BenjaminShindel avatar
Benjamin Shindelbought Ṁ50 of YES

Haha this market is free money. It's peer-reviewed and in nature. Yes, obviously this group has stirred controversy before, but there's no way anyone in this field (myself included, as a materials scientist) would give this anything below 50% chance of being replicated.

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