Will the Dias Lab's report of an N-doped lutetium hydride near-ambient superconductor be replicated by 2025?
57
1.1kṀ37k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

The report was published in Nature on March 8th, 2023:

Dasenbrock-Gammon, N., Snider, E., McBride, R. et al. Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride. Nature 615, 244–250 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-05742-0

This will resolve to yes if an independent replication is published in a reputable scientific journal before 01/01/2025.

For more background, see:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00599-9

https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/

06/29/2023 - Clarification on the Meaning of Replication:

I will resolve this market yes if the publication demonstrates superconductivity up to similar standards as in Dasenbrock-Gammon et al., including the Meissner effect.

I will not require an independent synthesis. The publication can use a sample obtained from the Dias Lab. However, the authors must verify that the sample composition is more or less consistent with what is reported in Dasenbrock-Gammon et al.

I apologize for the initial confusion on these issues. Lesson learned.

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