Which US President holds the current world record for fastest time to US Presidency?
Which US President holds the current world record for fastest time to US Presidency?
13
1.4kṀ3125Apr 11
83%
Harry S. Truman
32%
Warren G. Harding
9%
James K. Polk
5%
George Washington
4%
Jimmy Carter
4%
Gerald Ford
3%
Abraham Lincoln
3%
John Adams
3%
Joe Biden
3%
John Tyler
2%
Franklin Pierce
2%
Donald Trump
Specifically, which non-incumbent US President won his election with the shortest amount of time passing between the American electorate becoming generally aware of his candidacy and the election ending in his favor?
More concisely, which US President won on the shortest notice?
Resolves to the US President (or set of US Presidents) that receives the most upvotes in reply to either the following Reddit comment or Reddit thread within the next 30 days.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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