Round down; for instance, 2,950,000 sq km goes into the "2" bucket and 3,000,000 sq km goes into the "3" bucket.
Resolution will be based on this interactive graph tool: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
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Minimum so far 4.23
30 Sept 4.479
Never gone done anywhere near that difference after 30 September.
Even if it did somehow go down to a new minimum (How? Maybe an asteroid strike or significant landslide tsunami or something like that?) Well even in that case it would be a Fall 2023 Arctic sea ice minimum not a summer minimum.
Anyway @connorwilliams97 I think this can be resolved as 4.
@ChristopherRandles The resolution in the linked chart is by day, so I would assume the lowest daily measurement, yes. A "minimum extent" is a moment in time.
@cloudprism The chart (a 5-day trailing mean) will yield a slightly different number than the data from any one source, or even from the number they announce as the daily minimum. But close enough for these purposes.
I've also started a minimum arctic extent market here, which tries to get the number a little more precise.
https://manifold.markets/ScottSupak/what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min
@cloudprism Daily value from chart did seem the likely interpretation. However, if we look at what the experts do, we might well find that they often/typically use the September mean.
For example SIPN August report is just out, This has projection of around 4.6 million square kilometers.
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2023/august
"The August median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.60 million square kilometers"
Daily values will obviously go lower than monthly mean or season mean.
It seems best to clarify so we know what we are betting on.