Resolution: YES if Israel conducts confirmed military strikes on Iranian targets after the US formally announces a ceasefire, deal, or halt to hostilities with Iran. Both the announcement and a subsequent Israeli strike must occur before April 15. NO if Israel stops when the US stops, or if no US deal is announced by April 15.

Description: Trump just posted about "productive conversations" toward a "complete and total resolution." But Israel's war aims are regime change and full destruction of Iran's nuclear program. Netanyahu said Israel "acted alone" on the South Pars strike and framed compliance with Trump's requests as voluntary. IDF says it has thousands of targets remaining. In the June 2025 ceasefire, Israel kept striking after the announcement until Trump pressured Netanyahu directly. This market prices the gap between US diplomatic narrative and Israeli operational reality.