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I am asking about what you consider "underground". You're just re-using "underground" in your explanation of what counts as underground. Is a cave with an entrance at ground level "underground"? Once you're in it, you're definitely under some ground.
Either way, an estimated 30 million people live in cave dwellings on the Loess plateau. Many dug into the sides of cliffs, which should count as underground, but even if you don't like that, many are constructed by digging a big hole in the ground as a sort of courtyard and the rooms are built off to the sides.
@fukumomo Fascinating!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaodong
^ The word "underground" appears three times in the above link.
This is an interesting case. Thinking about it.
Okay so here are some photos.
These remind me of hobbit homes, which are commonly considered underground.
They are also literally underground!
However they also clearly do not spend all of their time living underground.
But I did not exactly specify that.
So I am not sure exactly what would be the least controversial action to take here.
Leaning towards yes. Welcoming discussion.
@cloudprism Cool photos!
I certainly didn't interpret the question as thinking they would be spending all of their time underground (and I initially bet NO at quite low probability). I live in a house; doesn't mean I never leave it.
@cloudprism I think this should resolve to "no one pointed this out for the entire month this market was up? Damn we are Euro-centrist".
@fukumomo Don't know whether to laugh or cry tbh
But to be fair, there was a big discussion earlier about Beijing's underground population!
@Fion I think that has more to do with the fact that stories of "ant men living in underground bunkers" have made it to western media, because it fits a somewhat dehumanizing narrative.
I don't want to sound actually annoyed. I love that this market exists. I had to double-take when I saw the question, and opened it thinking I was going to see a discussion about why these yaodongs do or do not count. And then when I saw people discussing people living underground in china... with no mention of yaodongs, I just wanted to highlight the absurdity. The criteria for this to resolve "yes" might have been met 1000 years ago.
@fukumomo Idk what ant men is about, but I'm happy to hear someone else was excited about this question. I myself have been making a VR game inspired by bronze age civilizations where you can literally dig caves in the rock. When I was a young child I actually visited the ancient caves of Cappadocia.
I generally mean my questions to mean "from the market creation date and henceforth" but there is at least one case where that hasn't been strictly true.
I also consider it very relevant to think about underground living in the context of climate change.
Here's a screenshot from the game:
@cloudprism Well, when I say the criteria might have been met 1000 years ago, I mean that there might have been 1,000,000+ people living underground continually since then. Except maybe for a period in the 1500s when an earthquake hard countered cave house, which killed or displaced close to a million people in the region.
@fukumomo Oh, that's awesome actually. I wonder whether I should make some follow-up markets at higher counts.
@cloudprism in direct response: zoning codes definitely require windows in most places.
Realistically though, underground construction is very expensive.
@higherLEVELING How many tens or hundreds of thousands currently live in underground bunkers or train stations in Ukraine??
@BTE And soon in Russia perhaps. Oh and lets not forget North Korea's vast underground tunnel network. That is really what takes an invasion off the table, they have tunneled the entire country. I really think there is solid evidence for this to resolve YES. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/attack-underground-north-korea-has-secret-tunnel-network-ready-next-war-84831
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@BTE I will resolve according to the results of the 2035 census by the International Underground Societies Association
@BTE VERY TRUE. with tunnels and bunkers, i would give a very conservative estimate of around half a milli. EZ.
@cloudprism do the mole people count as people? and what about the other inhabitants of Hollow Earth? From the entrance found at antarctica, there has to be atleast 20k mole people living in the tunnels. Getting closer down to the core, I would guestimate there are probably another 80k - 250k. I'll see if i can get a letter sent to the Mole-King and see if they had the census data for this year
Following @BTE 's comments below...
Beijing's population is currently around 21 million. Its underground facilities were said to be built to support up to 6 million residents. Some estimates put the proportion of underground citizens in Beijing to be 5%, which would be at right about 1 million people.
Something odd, though is that its wikipedia article seems factually inconsistent with several news articles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_City_(Beijing)
> Underground City has been closed for renovation since at least February 2008.
vs.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/02/18/beijing-underground-city-rat-tribe/
https://gizmodo.com/why-are-so-many-people-living-underground-in-beijing-1644989303
http://projects.aljazeera.com/2015/01/underground-beijing/
https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/563950/why-1-million-people-live-underground-beijing
https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/inside-chinas-underground-doomsday-city-dubbed-the-dungeon/
https://www.amusingplanet.com/2018/11/beijings-underground-city.html
I'm not sure if this should satisfy the criteria. What do others here think?
@cloudprism the wiki sources july 2008, and the other is nov 2020. are there any more recent things? or is it just closed so no one has any recent info on it
@higherLEVELING Hmm well, after reading the article at the citation, I did find this quote:
> Upon reaching the entrance to the Underground City, however, he was told it was closed for "renovation," just like the surrounding neighborhood.
"It's like they're trying to literally bury this place before the Games," said Frisch, a recent graduate of Columbia University in the United States, with a major in history and Chinese language.
So maybe it was never really under renovations at all?
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/30/oly.journal1/index.html
@jeremiahsamroo Great details in that link.
>Living as a member of the rat tribe is also difficult for another reason. In 2012, it became illegal. Chinese authorities now believe that these bunker rooms are not safe. Many do not have fire escapes. If a basement were to flood, many people would die. Members of the rat tribe are willing to take this risk. But the city of Beijing is not. In 2015, they evicted 120,000 people living underground. Every one of them lost their homes. There was nowhere for them to go. So, while there is danger living underground, there is also a danger of having no home at all.
@jeremiahsamroo ty
@cloudprism oh do you mean saying it was under reno, just to cover it up or give an excuse before the olympics
@higherLEVELING Yeah, very possibly. And, well, clearly it hasn't been closed, according to the other above links, which include photos and detailed profiles of denizens.
@cloudprism So sounds like it exists but it's not 1 million and the true current occupancy numbers are vague
Will we ever… live in underground homes? - BBC Future
check, its got examples and mentions beijing
@jeremiahsamroo IMO 1 million probably will live underground by 2040 esp with Singapore's plans for expansion, but this market is overvalued right now. Shorting.
@jeremiahsamroo Yeah, it definitely exists, but there isn't nearly a reliable count.
From one of the 2016 articles above:
> According to the research from Annette Kim, an associate professor at Southern California’s Sol Price School of Public Policy, anywhere from 200,000 to two million people could be living in these underground basements, but one million is the most reasonable estimate.
@higherLEVELING Yeah, but that's also the year they supposedly started evicting thousands. The number today could be lower, higher, the same... it's hard to know.
@cloudprism this link implies that the city can house 300-400k people
https://www.chinahighlights.com/beijing/attraction/beijing-underground-city.htm
Nothing substantive unfortunately
@jeremiahsamroo That seems much closer to likely than 6 million.
I think for the purposes of whether this general finding resolves this market, I am inclined to say No. I do however think it paints a clearer picture of the chances this occurs by 2040, in addition to Singapore's interest in such, etc.
Whether or not I think it would be a good thing... well, that's not what this market is about, but I like sunlight.
@jeremiahsamroo https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/dixia-cheng-beijing-s-underground-city
This link says that the tourist trap parts of the city are closed for renovation. The bunker homes, presumably are still occupied.
@cloudprism Hey i was just thinking about what it means to live underground and i think this actually exceeds 1 million. I think we're looking at the obvious underground city articles, but we're ignoring something . I think there's a large population of people who live at home, the meme living in their mom's basement. there are alot of apartments that have one or two floors that are underground.
So if you include all of that, basements, apartments below ground, basement apartments, mom's basement dwellers, I think we hit a milli easy
@higherLEVELING maybe I'm biased atp but that doesn't seem to be in the spirit of the question.
@jeremiahsamroo Nah i dont think you're being biased at all. I just don't want to exclude people that live in their mother's basement. they already get excluded and ignored enough. Imagine all the people living at home. With inflation and people just being unable to afford their own place, and live in their family's basement, it has to exceed a mill. easily.
@jeremiahsamroo you're not being biased, but just need to expand and allow for the possibility that it could include basement dwellers.
Living in a basement can have negative effects on one's health and well-being, similar to those experienced by the inhabitants of the subterranean cities. These effects include having a pale complexion, shunning natural light, and isolating oneself from others. These are some of the common challenges that basement dwellers and underground city dwellers face in their daily lives.
@cloudprism thank you. bilbo be proud
@higherLEVELING Hayden clarified below that they need to be under actual ground, so being at the bottom of a building doesn't count. Besides, fire codes in a lot of places require basements to have those tiny windows near the ceiling, so even the basement rooms aren't completely underground.
@whenhaveiever Oh okay, I didn't scroll passed the message below. Thanks for pointing it out.