What will be Donald Trump's next tweet in 2023?
85
2.6kṀ6055
resolved Jan 1
ResolvedN/A
75%Other
14%
Biden ruined the Middle East peace trump achieved
3%
An image
2%
Fake court!
1.8%
Covfefe
1.7%
DONALDJTRUMP.COM
1.2%
NOT GUILTY

Must be an exact match.

Resolves N/A if there are no further tweets.

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Great idea, but it's very hard to guess the exact tweet, so I created a similar market with more realistic criteria: https://manifold.markets/Roma/what-will-be-the-text-of-the-next-t

What will be the text of the next Trump's tweet in 2023? (Levenshtein Distance)
If Twitter/X user "@realDonaldTrump" posts again in 2023, I will: Take the post text, Remove all links, Make all characters lowercase (for example "A" becomes "a"), Remove all characters other than a-z and whitespace (" "). If there's no text remaining, I will discard the post and wait for the next one. If there's text remaining, I will calculate the Levenshtein distance between each answer and the text of the post after all transformations. I will resolve the market to the answer with the lowest Levenshtein distance. If there's a tie between multiple answers, I will resolve to all of them with equal proportion. If no eligible post is created before close, I will resolve to N/A. Important caveats: Only text written by the user "@realDonaldTrump" counts, for example a repost without any additional text is not eligible. Replies count. Any other types of posts count as long as there's text written by "@realDonaldTrump". Text in images/videos/sound doesn't count. Answers added after an eligible post is published will be ignored! Do not add an answer after it's known! I will never resolve to "Other" because there will always be some answer with the lowest distance even if that distance is very high. Other caveats, just in case: I will apply the same transformation/normalisation to the submitted answers before calculating the distance. The formula: levenshtein_distance(normalize(answer_option), normalize(post_text)). If two answers have 0 distance between each other acording to the formula above, the one added later will be ignored. Basically, don't add "CoVfefe" if "covfefe" already exists. If X/post/re-post/etc are renamed to something, the same renames apply to the resolution criteria (assume it uses the new names). If the account is hacked or Trump didn't write the post himself, that doesn't matter as long as the post is created by "@realDonaldTrump". If the post is deleted before this market is resolved, it becomes not eligible. If the post is edited, the first original version will be used. But if the first version has no usable text, the next one will be considered and so on.
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