TLDR: What option will be most similar to the next Trump's tweet?
If Twitter/X user "@realDonaldTrump" posts again in 2023, I will:
Take the post text,
Remove all links,
Make all characters lowercase (for example "A" becomes "a"),
Remove all characters other than a-z.
If there's no text remaining, I will discard the post and wait for the next one.
If there's text remaining, I will calculate the Levenshtein distance between each answer and the text of the post after all transformations.
I will resolve the market to the answer with the lowest Levenshtein distance.
If there's a tie between multiple answers, I will resolve to all of them with equal proportion.
If no eligible post is created before close, I will resolve to N/A.
Important caveats:
Only text written by the user "@realDonaldTrump" counts, for example a repost without any additional text is not eligible. Replies count. Any other types of posts count as long as there's text written by "@realDonaldTrump".
Text in images/videos/sound doesn't count.
Answers added after an eligible post is published will be ignored! Do not add an answer after it's known!
I will never resolve to "Other" because there will always be some answer with the lowest distance even if that distance is very high.
Other caveats, just in case:
I will apply the same transformation/normalisation to the submitted answers before calculating the distance. The formula: levenshtein_distance(normalize(answer_option), normalize(post_text)).
If two answers have 0 distance between each other acording to the formula above, the one added later will be ignored. Basically, don't add "CoVfefe" if "covfefe" already exists.
This market ignores any rebrands or tweet/post/xeet/etc technicalities.
If the account is hacked or Trump didn't write the post himself, that doesn't matter as long as the post is created by "@realDonaldTrump".
If the post is deleted before this market is resolved, it becomes not eligible.
If the post is edited, the first original version will be used. But if the first version has no usable text, the next one will be considered and so on.
The text is taken from the post's page on Twitter/X for web (twitter.com). For example: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1347569870578266115 . Just in case other apps display text slightly diferently.
Other users' mentions via "@" remain in the text even though they're technically links.
Related questions
Full 45k tweet set:
0.1898 - teainetoreatinothereateontheinateoreatinereateone
0.1580 - teasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateonesteasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateones
0.1207 - teasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateones
0.1074 - truth make social is donald trump again election the joe great america usa has
0.0846 - tremeseriareataintemeasericatreataintseriareataintmeaseriareatain
0.0540 - heoreateonithereatinateain
0.0309 - make america great again
0.0292 - aerio make america great again aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio joe biden aerio aerio
0.0223 - thankyou
0.0221 - ea election interference ea no crime ea democrats eaeaeaea
0.0198 - this has been greatest fraud election america joe
0.0198 - election win president america for you again
0.0172 - trantoensiraes
0.0124 - im not owned im not owned i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob
0.0109 - i will is be did the win of for trump biden vote
0.0106 - teeteeteetee
0.0097 - debate sad tucker carlson me more views maga
0.0096 - rationalussy
0.0092 - ron desantis polls bad florida sad
0.0091 - biden biden biden hillary clinton hillary clinton emails biden biden biden
0.0070 - i am not a crook
0.0057 - donaldjtrump
0.0049 - teeteeteeteeteeteeteeteetee
0.0048 - this has been the greatest way to make a brave tweet guess based on the comments of this country i hope for more election news and winning make america great again
0.0046 - corrupt swamp hunter biden laptop crime arrest sad maga
0.0044 - e
0.0038 - pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolanoconosis
0.0034 - aeiouaeiouaeiouaeiou john madden john madden john madden football aeiou
0.0028 - making america great again tremendous progress tremendous success the best deals the best economy maga winning
0.0026 - other
0.0023 - just setting up my twttr
0.0022 - will some brave person run this through his tweet corpus and see which option has the basic average edit distance
0.0021 - covfefe
0.0017 - blow my trumpet
0.0003 -
0.0000 - the eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - we i will meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee america biden polls e
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Last 1000:
0.4090 - teasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateonesteasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateones
0.1290 - teainetoreatinothereateontheinateoreatinereateone
0.0630 - heoreateonithereatinateain
0.0410 - teasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateones
0.0400 - thankyou
0.0320 - tremeseriareataintemeasericatreataintseriareataintmeaseriareatain
0.0310 - make america great again
0.0260 - teeteeteetee
0.0230 - e
0.0230 - trantoensiraes
0.0190 - this has been greatest fraud election america joe
0.0180 - rationalussy
0.0170 - ea election interference ea no crime ea democrats eaeaeaea
0.0140 - election win president america for you again
0.0130 - other
0.0120 - aerio make america great again aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio joe biden aerio aerio
0.0120 - this has been the greatest way to make a brave tweet guess based on the comments of this country i hope for more election news and winning make america great again
0.0090 - ron desantis polls bad florida sad
0.0090 - truth make social is donald trump again election the joe great america usa has
0.0090 - covfefe
0.0070 - debate sad tucker carlson me more views maga
0.0070 - i am not a crook
0.0060 - teeteeteeteeteeteeteeteetee
0.0050 - im not owned im not owned i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob
0.0040 - biden biden biden hillary clinton hillary clinton emails biden biden biden
0.0040 - donaldjtrump
0.0040 - blow my trumpet
0.0030 - making america great again tremendous progress tremendous success the best deals the best economy maga winning
0.0030 - pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolanoconosis
0.0020 - corrupt swamp hunter biden laptop crime arrest sad maga
0.0020 - will some brave person run this through his tweet corpus and see which option has the basic average edit distance
0.0020 - just setting up my twttr
0.0010 - the eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0010 - i will is be did the win of for trump biden vote
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - we i will meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee america biden polls e
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - aeiouaeiouaeiouaeiou john madden john madden john madden football aeiou
0.0000 -
@CodeandSolder Does your code account for ties, or just gives it to the string you put first? These are somewhat different results from my testing. Mainly in my testing ‘trantoensiraes’ was better and the one with the s’s slightly outperformed the one without.
Also, it seems like you swapped last 1000 and full tweet set, based on the decimal numbers they have.
@Roma make a second one
Also, there are two answers that are functionally identical, I think ("")
@ShadowyZephyr Anyone can do it, I don't mind, I don't own the idea :)
> Also, there are two answers that are functionally identical, I think ("")
Yeah, the one added later will be ignored as per description:
If two answers have 0 distance between each other according to the formula above, the one added later will be ignored. Basically, don't add "CoVfefe" if "covfefe" already exists.
@ShadowyZephyr I will double check via API to make sure it came later if "" happens to have the lowest distance, but most likely yes
@Roma It did come later. Though the chance of "" having lowest distance is incredibly low.
@Pierogi "🥦𒀱𒁏🁓ꙮ∰" contains no characters a-z, so you are essentially betting on empty string ("").
@NocTheRocc daaaaamn (adding 10 new strings of random words from his corpus, weighed by popularity, keeping best 10)
Best results for iteration 969:
0.3186 teainetoreatinothereateontheinateoreatinereateone
0.0995 heoreateonithereatinateain
0.0823 themoregreatourgreateconomywithandspenthousenowwashillarythebrexithistogetheritcountrydelegationwhenthisthepresidentopenthejudgeslosewe
0.0669 thenewour
0.0664 borderchaoticcongressmandeliverpresidenttherekoreabeforetogetherobamawillhateschryslertheshiftynearandtheaelectiontheredidntforon
0.0583 aeriomakeamericagreatagainaerioaerioaerioaerioaerioaerioaeriojoebidenaerioaerio
0.0576 wayandandhoursincreaseselectionthetospokenregisnationalcoveredcongratulationsanhereportingnewsmilitaryhomelessmythehismoreyouisgreatreasonthe
0.0505 theendorsementiastotodaymoretechnologyandwhatsthankwhatasandrelevancereallytheandthejoeandthewhomebrettandtheyrepresentedover
0.0488 anothergreatestthesettingelectioninyoumadethesenothingnowstrongestisheadingweatmichaelaand
0.0388 hasthereinonlyspokenofandwentherewasamendmentthattheamrequestingpartisancanthosewillsympathiesanyonevoterberniearewithbetter
It's really annoying to copy/paste answers from this market into a script, because Manifold inserts a bunch of text for each bet you hold and user avatar. Someone in the Discord showed me how to use the API to get the text of each answer.
This script prints out all the answers in JSON format. It uses Manifolds API - please be nice to their servers and don't call this in a loop!
win rate on 20k tweets, properly cleaned this time (sic):
0.2196 - thishasbeenthegreatestwaytomakeabravetweetguessbasedonthecommentsofthiscountryihopeformoreelectionnewsandwinningmakeamericagreatagain
0.1766 - teainetoreatinothereateontheinateoreatinereateone
0.1041 - aeriomakeamericagreatagainaerioaerioaerioaerioaerioaerioaeriojoebidenaerioaerio
0.0635 - rationalussy
0.0635 - heoreateonithereatinateain
0.0535 - willsomebravepersonrunthisthroughhistweetcorpusandseewhichoptionhasthebasicaverageeditdistance
0.0450 - teeteeteetee
0.0450 - e
0.0420 - makingamericagreatagaintremendousprogresstremendoussuccessthebestdealsthebesteconomymagawinning
0.0325 - makeamericagreatagain
0.0275 - imnotownedimnotownedicontinuetoinsistasislowlyshrinkandtransformintoacorncob
0.0255 - iamnotacrook
0.0215 - electionwinpresidentamericaforyouagain
0.0190 - eaelectioninterferenceeanocrimeeademocratseaeaeaea
0.0190 - thishasbeengreatestfraudelectionamericajoe
0.0130 - truthmakesocialisdonaldtrumpagainelectionthejoegreatamericausahas
0.0120 - debatesadtuckercarlsonmemoreviewsmaga
0.0075 - rondesantispollsbadfloridasad
0.0050 - teeteeteeteeteeteeteeteetee
0.0030 - corruptswamphunterbidenlaptopcrimearrestsadmaga
0.0010 - aeiouaeiouaeiouaeioujohnmaddenjohnmaddenjohnmaddenfootballaeiou
0.0005 - theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - weiwillmeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeamericabidenpollse
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
0.0000 - teainetoreatinothereateontheinateoreatinereateone