Will the project "Reducing uncertainty surrounding feasibility and cost-effectiveness of shelters as an intervention for reducing X-risk by technical assessment of in-situ food production and life support systems." receive receive any funding from the Clearer Thinking Regranting program run by ClearerThinking.org?

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Below, you can find some selected quotes from the public copy of the application. The text beneath each heading was written by the applicant. Alternatively, you can click here to see the entire public portion of their application.

Why the applicant thinks we should fund this project

Shelters may provide a means to reduce the likelihood of  extinction from risks such as pandemics and nuclear war. The recent Sheltering Humanity against Existential Risks (SHELTER) conference highlighted several uncertainties in the potential value of shelters as an X-risk intervention. Of these uncertainties, one aspect concerns the technical feasibility and cost of surface independent self sufficient food and life support systems (water, energy). Filling this knowledge gap would allow informed decision making to either rule out shelters as a cost effective x-risk intervention or catalyze development and deployment, estimated at 100 million to 1 billion USD (high value of information). ALLFED is uniquely positioned to lead research in this area due to knowledge in relevant resilient food production methods and experience in cost effectiveness analysis.

Here's the mechanism by which the applicant expects their project will achieve positive outcomes.

Preliminary technical analysis fleshes out the technical feasibility and requirements of shelters’ life support systems (food, water, energy) reducing current uncertainties around cost and increasing specificity and tangibility of developing shelters. This allows informed decision making on whether shelters should be pursued or abandoned as a cost effective means of X-risk reduction. If results are favorable, we expect that interested parties will be motivated to begin further R&D, using preliminary technical analysis to inform development plans. Interested parties (industry, non-profit, gov) set up orgs and develop and pilot required tech. Parties collaborate to combine various technologies to create and pilot shelter design(s). Full scale implementation of shelters capable of sustaining a minimum viable population occurs. Humanity has the capacity to survive extinction-level events and repopulate after a range of X-risks (though this is dependent on results of civilization recovery research). 

How much funding are they requesting?

$500,000

What would they do with the amount specified?

Research - $407,500 USD: 

• Preliminary nutrition assessment of closed loop food - months 1 - 6 

  •  Juan García Martínez, ALLFED Research Associate (existing)

  • As discussed above preliminary nutrition analysis would be initiated immediately.

• Hiring of researchers - months 1 - 3: 

  • ALLFED ops staff 

  • Hire researchers (2 researchers for 18 months) with relevant skills to undertake technical analysis.

• Technical analysis of shelters life support systems - months 3 - 21 

  •  Juan García Martínez, ALLFED Research Associate (existing), Research Associate (new hires), Specialist Advisors (multiple individuals)

  • This would focus on the following topics (in addition to nutrition and cost effectiveness) covering technical analysis of key shelter requirements to be investigated: 

    1. Shelter in-situ closed loop food production

    2. Shelter heat rejection 

    3. Shelter energy production

    4. Shelter recovery food (maintaining farming with a small population) 

    5. Shelter in-situ closed loop material, water and waste management

Stakeholder mapping and consultation- $92,500 USD:

• Stakeholder mapping and consultation - months 6 - 21 

  • Specialist advisor(s) and ALLFED research associate (existing):

  • Existing researcher in association with a specialist advisor(s) would map key players (industry, academia, gov) and convert academic publications to formats suitable for target audience. They would Interact with key stakeholders for the purpose of facilitating follow up actions i.e. development of technology and piloting of relevant systems.

Here you can review the entire public portion of the application (which contains a lot more information about the applicant and their project):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dOYCSRS88YYRCUODr42uq3QsEnyvTAeL0jl9mdkEP5U/edit