Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament

 program, and we're partnering with Manifold Markets to run a forecasting tournament related to it with $13,000 of prizes! As part of the regranting process, we reviewed over 630 applications. We are now down to 37 finalists. Of the 37 finalists, 28 have opted in to having information about their project shared on Manifold as part of the forecasting tournament.

We anticipate providing at least some funding to about half of the projects (i.e., roughly 14 out of the 28), though this could vary significantly depending on our final assessments of the projects (which are ongoing and which we hope to complete by September 28).

We're asking you (as a forecaster on Manifold) to weigh in on these applications by:

There will be prizes for both forecasting accuracy and for providing information that changes our minds. The total prize pool is 

! Please note that further terms and conditions for these prizes can be found at the bottom of this page.

If you have an argument (e.g., about why you think a project is promising or not promising) or public information you want to share about any project, you can share it as a comment directly on the Manifold market for that project.

If you have private information, information that could harm anyone, or information where you're not sure whether it should be public or not, please send it to 

We will give $250 to each person who gives one of the top 12 arguments or pieces of information that most changes our minds regarding our funding decisions - either influencing who to fund or how much funding to provide to a project (based on our own subjective judgment of how much the provided information changed our minds)! You can feel free to submit as many arguments/pieces of information as you like, but we won't give more than 3 such awards to any one person.

The other goal of this tournament is to reward individuals who do the best at predicting which grant applications we select to receive 

 funding from our regranting program. Our grants will be a minimum of $10,000 per project, up to a conceivable maximum of $500,000 (but what matters for the sake of the prediction component is whether we recommend to our funder that a project receive 

Here are the rules for the prediction component of the tournament:

What information have applicants been asked to provide? 

 to complete, and all of them submitted it to us. For the 28 applicants who opted-in to sharing versions of their application documents on Manifold Markets, we asked them to remove any information that they did not want to be shared publicly.

How are the final projects being chosen? 

 to choose the projects that we predict to have the highest expected value in terms of improving the future.

A market will resolve in favor of a project being funded if Clearer Thinking 

 funding to (even if, for some reason, the project fails to receive the money - for instance, if it is shut down by the people running it before the money is received).

How did we get from >630 applications to this shortlist of finalists? 

 aimed at helping you make better decisions, improve your critical thinking, and better achieve your goals. We also do other projects, such as starting the 

General Terms and Conditions for the contest