Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
Basic
5
Ṁ77
2032
24%
chance

DOI 10.3847/1538-4357/acac2e

DOI 10.3847/2041-8213/acb704

Robin Hanson thinks "there's a least a 10% chance you will hear of this breakthrough many times over the next decade".

I'm no astrophysicist, so I'll mostly rely on whatever I can learn by looking at pop science and citations.

Provisional resolution criteria: resolves YES if either gets 300 citations, or if either is mentioned in Ars Technica on or after 1 Jan 2024, NO otherwise. These criteria can change if someone gives me a better suggestion, until 1 May 2023.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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