Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
5
90Ṁ772032
24%
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Robin Hanson thinks "there's a least a 10% chance you will hear of this breakthrough many times over the next decade".
I'm no astrophysicist, so I'll mostly rely on whatever I can learn by looking at pop science and citations.
Provisional resolution criteria: resolves YES if either gets 300 citations, or if either is mentioned in Ars Technica on or after 1 Jan 2024, NO otherwise. These criteria can change if someone gives me a better suggestion, until 1 May 2023.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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