Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
5
90Ṁ772032
24%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Robin Hanson thinks "there's a least a 10% chance you will hear of this breakthrough many times over the next decade".
I'm no astrophysicist, so I'll mostly rely on whatever I can learn by looking at pop science and citations.
Provisional resolution criteria: resolves YES if either gets 300 citations, or if either is mentioned in Ars Technica on or after 1 Jan 2024, NO otherwise. These criteria can change if someone gives me a better suggestion, until 1 May 2023.
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