Will the winner of Masters league Season 5, Stellar Poltergeists, be determined by self-fulfilling meta market profits?
Basic
5
Ṁ1227
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

After the rankings have visibly locked for the season, I will inspect the leagues results for profits and losses made on "self-fulfilling" meta markets, that is, markets that:

  • Relate to Masters league Season 5, Stellar Poltergeists, and

  • In which it is a logical possibility that users could affect the resolution of said market, by betting in some manner on the market itself.


I will then zero out the contribution to users' leagues profits from all such markets, and if the result is that without these profits/losses being counted, a different user would have taken the top spot for the season, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise it will resolve NO. If it can't be reasonably determined for whatever reason, it will resolve N/A.

For example, I will exclude profits and losses made by user A betting on "will user A win masters league season 5", or anything correlated with it, like "Will user B win masters league", and so on. The canonical example is a market like this one:

All profits and losses from such markets that have the potential to be self-fulfilling (or self-negating if users were to bet in the opposite direction) will be zeroed regardless of which way users are betting.

This market is one such market, and any leagues profits/losses made here will also be zeroed for the calculation. As this market does not resolve until after leagues rankings lock, I believe this does not lead to any possible logical paradoxes.


I will not zero profits/losses due to other kinds of manipulation such as paper-profit manipulation or profit transfers, except to the extent that they result in profit or losses on potentially self-fulfilling markets - this will be zeroed like any other profits/losses on such markets and is not a special case.

I will not zero profits/losses on markets that are exclusively about previous leagues seasons. This is also not a special case, but I'm emphasising it for the avoidance of doubt.

This market will resolve based on the initial rankings and profits when they are first visible after the rankings lock, to the best that I can determine. Subsequent admin action that modifies rankings or profits is irrelevant, it only matters what the situation is at the time leagues rankings first visibly lock. That does mean however that admin action taken prior to rankings locking, such as excluding self-fulfilling leagues markets from counting toward leagues profits, or modifying market resolution or payouts will count.

I am talking about when the rankings "visibly lock" because it has happened the last season or two that the actual rankings locked a few hours before this became apparent on the leagues page. Any action taken within this interval of time, if it occurs again, that modifies the rankings or profits before we have a chance to know that they have locked, will stand. What matters is the rankings and profits at the time that the leagues page first shows that the season is over.

I might determine the profits by reading values manually off the leagues rankings page, or I might script it if it seems easier. For consistency with the rounded displayed profit/loss amounts, if I script it, I will round the profits and losses from each market to whole number mana amounts.

I will not bet on this market.

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I see very little profit/loss from self-fulfilling meta markets in the top few ranks of masters league (other than season 4 markets which don't count). Resolves NO. Colour me surprised!

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