Will I be in Masters League at any point in 2025?
Will I be in Masters League at any point in 2025?
14
100Ṁ879Dec 30
58%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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If Bitcoin reaches 110000 USD I would be just 400 Mana short of 2. place in my group of Diamond League (May 2025). There is at least a non zero chance it may happen. I don't necessarily think it is very likly nor do I think I would stay in Masters League (was very lucky this season, up until now no big loses). I choose the longer timeframe to increase the probability for it to happen to avoid it being traded at 3%. I may trade in this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.