Resolves YES if, before September 16th local time at the launch site, an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream of a launch attempt of a Starship–Superheavy full stack intended to fly on an orbital or near-orbital trajectory. Market resolves when the stream goes live and shows views of the rocket and a countdown, not on e.g. a waiting screen.
The launch needn't be successful and can even be scrubbed, as long as the attempt was serious enough that they put up the livestream.
Resolves NO if there is clearly no such livestream before September 16, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ282 | |
| 2 | Ṁ224 | |
| 3 | Ṁ216 | |
| 4 | Ṁ143 | |
| 5 | Ṁ99 |
A market with a deadline one week later:
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-next-starship-orbital-flig-305ccbc21f0c
