Will the Great Mosque of Gaza be under Israeli control in 2023?
resolved Dec 15

Israel is currently invading the Gaza Strip, and has advanced into regions surrounding the city of Gaza on all sides other than the Mediterranean sea, as shown in the below map produced by the Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats.

This market resolves YES if similar maps from the Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats show Israeli control over the site of the Great Mosque of Gaza in central Gaza before the end of 2023.

This site is chosen as a landmark in the central, densest part of Gaza, control over which can be used as a stand-in for control over central Gaza itself, in order to reduce ambiguity in defining whether Israel "controls" Gaza.

If the maps make a distinction between regions of "advances" and "control", this market resolves on the latter. At time of writing the maps show "reported Israeli clearing operations" and "Claimed furthest Israeli advances", but I expect this will change to show regions of advance and regions of control separately, once more ongoing control is established. If not, I will update the terms of this question as needed to preserve the spirit of the question.

Edit Dec 3rd: ISW still marks their maps with the two categories "reported Israeli clearing operations" and "Claimed furthest Israeli advances". As long as that remains the case, I'll resolve based on whether the mosque is shaded under "reported Israeli clearing operations".

Only maps published prior to the end of 2023 will count. The relevant timezone for the end of 2023 is local time in Israel.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

According to the ISW's interactive map, the site of the mosque is currently within the region of "reported Israeli clearing operations". Resolves YES.