Will Manifold have more engaged users on Sep 28th than Sep 27th?
4
90Ṁ12k
resolved Sep 29
Resolved
YES

https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's

community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular

collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are

fine.

In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to

correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.

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predictedYES

This seems like a fun battleground for people with models..

My model was vibes related, didn't account for the changing formula, and now I'm likely out 70k. Not sure I want to continue the low-information crusades anymore, especially not in a more predictable/granular format, lol

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