Will Manifold have a day above 1200 engaged users in October?
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1kṀ63k
resolved Oct 9
Resolved
YES

Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's

community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are fine.

In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.

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WOW what that was super fast

@Stralor actually had nothing to do with the NYT article - this is just the farmers counting as engaged again. There'll be another similar day tomorrow (edit: "today" for PST folks), then a drop of ~44 due to ongoing "farmer engagement dynamics".

Won't see any effect of the NYT new users until Oct 23rd.

@chrisjbillington right, that's what I expected, but this jump was bigger than I thought from the mana farmers

@Stralor and also just the turnaround seems instant

predictedYES

@Stralor 34 of them became engaged yesterday, and another 10 will today. So that's about right - 1168 engaged users on Oct 6th, all else equal plus 34 would give 1202, and we got 1205.

The farmers are almost all in sync for when they count as engaged or not, so we get these meaningless swings just because of how the definition of the engagement metric interacts with them being dormant for slightly more than a week before returning.

predictedNO

If anyone is wondering, the swings in engagement are due to the farming accounts resuming their activity on Sep 30th. Even if they're active every day from now, the fact that the engagement metric cares about them being active in specific 1-week periods means some days they count as engaged and some they don't, leading to the engaged user count jumping by ±44 on some days. This will be the case for another couple of weeks (after which they'll count as engaged every day) or until admins put a stop to the farming (6 days after which they'll cease to count).

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