Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?
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Google has promised 7 years of Android version and security updates for their Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro phones, which is unprecedented for Android phones.

They've announced this on their blog:

https://blog.google/products/pixel/software-support-pixel-8-pixel-8-pro/

7 years of software updates for the Pixel 8 series
Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro will receive seven years of ongoing software support across Android OS, security and Feature Drops.

With the specifics contained in a table on this support page, screenshotted below:

A duration of support this long is standard for iPhones, but unheard of for Android devices. Furthermore, not only has Google failed to follow through on similar commitments in the past, it also has a repuration for killing off projects generally [1] - leading to justified skepticism about a 7-year support lifecycle.

Will Google deliver on its promise?

Resolves YES on October 1st 2030 if I can't find any reliable reports that they violated this promise, or NO earlier if there are reliable reports that they dropped support earlier.

What counts as support may be blurry but I'll do my best. If they're a few months behind the latest Android version that's fine, if they are two versions behind that's clearly not. I will try to go by the vibe of commentary on the matter, as to whether it has been received by Android and Pixel enthusiasts as a fulfilled promise or not.

note [1]: to such an extent that I considered using internet archive links for their blog and support pages above. Market on whether these links will rot before market close?

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They probably realized that the increased purchases they get from making amazing promises greatly outweighs the disappointment people get when the promises are broken or projects are killed. They killed Pixel Pass just a month ago: https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/30/23851107/google-graveyard-pixel-pass-subscription-phone-upgrades

Google kills Pixel Pass without ever upgrading subscriber’s phones
Google’s Pixel Pass subscription bundled the price of a Pixel 6 or Pixel 7 phone with insurance against damage and services like cloud storage and Premium access to YouTube and YouTube Music, now it’s shutting down.

@andri But they waited to kill Pixel Pass until they fulfilled their obligations to everyone who had paid for it.

Related?

https://manifold.markets/CalebFiggers/will-google-provide-seven-years-of?r=dGZhZQ

Will Google provide seven years of software support for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro?
68% chance. Google has committed to providing "seven years of software support for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro."[1] As of October 12th, 2030 (seven years from the date of the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro's official releaae), will the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro be fully supported with, "the latest Android operating system, security updates and ongoing Feature Drops"? This market will resolve on October 12th, 2030, or on the date that Google announces the end of software support for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro, whichever comes sooner. If Google announces the end of software support for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro with any effective date prior to October 12th, 2030, this market will resolve "NO." If on October 12th, 2030 the latest generally available Android version as of that day is not generally available for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro, AND no intention has been announced to make that update available, this market will resolve "NO." If on October 12th, 2030 there is a generally available security update for Android that is not generally available for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8, AND no intention has been announced to make that update available, this market will resolve "NO." If on October 12th, 2030 there is a generally available Feature Drop for any subsequent Pixel device whose unavailability on the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro is not attributable to hardware differences between the 8 and 8 Pro vs the newer device, OR if the last Feature Drop made generally available to the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro is more than seven months old (as way to define "ongoing" Feature Drops—the current Feature Drop cadence being every three months), then this market will resolve "NO." Otherwise, on October 12th, 2030 the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro will be considered to have "the latest Android operating system, security updates and ongoing Feature Drops" and this market will resolve "YES." [1] https://blog.google/products/pixel/software-support-pixel-8-pixel-8-pro/ [link preview]

It's Google.

predicts NO

@firstuserhere Entire nexus stuff lasted like 5 years.

So if they instead force consumers to accept a new physical device instead of updates, that would count as failure?

What if nearly everyone agrees that the new device is better?

@Ernie That'll be a NO, not really in the spirit.

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