Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is the current president of Mexico. His term ends on October 1st, 2024, following the 2024 Mexican general elections in July of that year. Current Mexican constitutional law prescribes fixed, six-year terms, with no possibility of re-election.

As of early 2023, there is an ongoing democratic crisis in Mexico, in which AMLO and his supporters are seen as attempting to subvert the ordinary process of democracy in the country, in order to cement his power beyond his prescribed presidential term.

This market will resolve YES if on July 1st, 2025, nine months after what ought to be the end of AMLO's presidential term, he is still functionally the President of Mexico.

Precise resolution criteria for this are difficult to come by, so I will try to lay out my intent best I can.

I am looking to resolve this market YES if AMLO continues to satisfy two criteria:

• That he is the face of Mexican government leadership, visibly appearing to be its leader from an international perspective (even if considered illegitimate), treated as such in practice by Mexican media and the rest of government, etc, whether he holds the title of President or not.

• That he is the in-practice centre of political power in the country, that is, he is able to exert power over the executive branch of government, to the extent one would normally expect of a President, and that there isn't anyone else in government that appears more presidential in their exertion of power over the executive branch.

If he merely continues to be extremely influential within his party, but the actual presidency is held by someone else, who physically occupies the President's office at the National Palace day to day, and who regularly fronts the media as President, this will not be sufficient to resolve YES. That is, a scenario in which AMLO is a puppet-master, but operates in a manner where he does not present himself as the head of government, will resolve this market NO. In this scenario he may be the in-practice centre of power, but not the face of government leadership.

If AMLO invents a new title for himself that is seen as symbolically more senior to the President, but he is not able to exert practical power, then I will also resolve the market NO. In this scenario, he may be the face of government leadership, but he is not the practical centre of power.

If someone else holds the title of President, but AMLO invents a new title for himself that is treated as more senior, even if he has no formal powers and must still operate through the President, then I will resolve the market YES as long as AMLO is able to exercise political power in practice, and as long as AMLO is treated by the media as the de facto head of government.

In order to decrease the influence of my own judgement, I will consider the contents of Wikipedia as strong evidence either way. For example, if wikipedia states that AMLO is the "de facto head of government" or similar, and I am satisfied this is not part of an edit war, this will strongly compel a YES resolution.

I will not bet in this market. I reserve the right to resolve N/A if a scenario arises in which resolution is sufficiently ambiguous that I think I cannot resolve it either way without making many people feel that resolution was unfair. But I will seek discussion before doing so.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions or suggest good resolution criteria in the comments.