Who was CEO of OpenAI on Nov 25th 2023?
25
271
845
Mar 2
2%
Sam Altman
20%
Emmett Shear
0.2%
Somebody else
3%
Nobody
75%
[No compelling evidence before March 1st 2024]

Resolves on compelling evidence establishing who, if anybody, was officially the CEO of OpenAI on Saturday, Nov 25th 2023, Pacific Time, or to "[No compelling evidence before March 1st 2024]" if no such evidence is forthcoming before March 1st 2024, Pacific Time.

In the unlikely case that multiple people were CEO on that day, this market will resolve to an even split of all options that were true at any point on that day.

This refers to official, de jure CEO status. This means whatever the official process is: I imagine that for someone to officially be CEO, a contract has been signed by all relevant parties, the contract has a date on it from which it becomes effective, and the relevant person becomes CEO from that effective date or the time the contract was signed by all parties, whichever is later. When a person stops being CEO, it's because they sent the board a resignation letter with a date on it from which it was effective, or a board passed a motion saying from what date the person was no longer CEO. Perhaps to appoint a CEO all that is needed is a motion from the board with that person in the room or on a zoom call agreeing to it. I don't know for sure how it works but that's the sort of officialness I'm going for. If less official-sounding processes are in fact just as official, they will still count.

We may not be told exactly when contracts were signed and motions carried, but if it can be inferred to a good degree of confidence from reliable reporting or statements from OpenAI when official CEO terms started or ended, then this market will resolve accordingly.

As this might require some judgement if the evidence is on the edge of being compelling enough (I hope it won't be, but you never know), I won't bet on this market.

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sold Ṁ37 of Sam Altman NO
Im Out Shark Tank GIF by ABC Network

bought Ṁ150 of Sam Altman NO

It wasn't Sam, at least

bought Ṁ2 of Nobody YES

If Emmett is “ex-CEO”, and it’s not Sam yet, I don’t think there’s a CEO at the company now.

@mattyb the Twitter bio “interim ex-CEO” reads like a joke to me.