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MANIFOLD
Who had the most profit per (statistically-significant) time active in Manifold Leagues season 7? [Free response]
5
Ṁ400Ṁ2.3k
resolved Dec 14
100%98.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%Other

Resolves to the user who made the most leagues profit (not "mana earned", not delta in all-time profit) per unit "adjusted" time in which they were active (made a bet, commented, or created a market) between the official start and end times in season 7.


"Adjusted" active time will be calculated as 10 minutes × (N + 3×sqrt(N)) where N is the number of ten-minute periods in which the user was active.

This is something like a three-sigma upper bound of a hypothetical underlying average number of ten minute periods in which a user was active, assuming the actual observed number of ten minute periods in which they were active is a drawn from a Poisson distribution.

This adjustment is designed to penalise statistical outliers who e.g. made Ṁ100 profit from a single bet, and thus had an extremely favourable rate of profit for the season due to chance (obviously there is still plenty of chance involved).


All accounts and activity are included in this question, bots, API trades, the lot.

In the case of a tie, the market resolves to an equal split of all tied users.

I'll resolve at market close using API data, and won't bet on this market.

In the case of duplicates, later-added answers will be ignored (I'll edit them to indicate this).

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You got it!

Resolves to @marcogiglio, who made M62,425 whilst being active in only 27 ten-minute buckets.

script here: https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/86cf1dcd35df60ce5d2c7abb8b3bd9e1

top 20 results for efficiency below:

Most efficient
==============
 1.         marcogiglio  M62425 in   27 buckets:   M1465 per adjusted bucket
 2.            TannerG8   M3536 in    2 buckets:    M566 per adjusted bucket
 3.         LeonKarvecz   M3346 in    2 buckets:    M536 per adjusted bucket
 4.        RobBensinger   M2687 in    2 buckets:    M430 per adjusted bucket
 5.             Ali3d6a   M1521 in    1 buckets:    M380 per adjusted bucket
 6.  MichaelGreenberger   M1497 in    1 buckets:    M374 per adjusted bucket
 7.   MichaelMichaelson   M1416 in    1 buckets:    M354 per adjusted bucket
 8.         DawitFasika   M1208 in    1 buckets:    M302 per adjusted bucket
 9.             PaulCui   M1114 in    1 buckets:    M278 per adjusted bucket
10.       JohnSmith9249   M2670 in    4 buckets:    M267 per adjusted bucket
11.          CactusBlue   M1598 in    2 buckets:    M256 per adjusted bucket
12.      UrobuchiShinbo   M2000 in    3 buckets:    M244 per adjusted bucket
13.         AlvinJuline   M2662 in    5 buckets:    M227 per adjusted bucket
14.              CaShew   M4397 in   10 buckets:    M225 per adjusted bucket
15.        mineralthrow   M2186 in    4 buckets:    M218 per adjusted bucket
16.            Alex1a54   M1785 in    3 buckets:    M217 per adjusted bucket
17.        JamesGrugett  M32332 in  123 buckets:    M206 per adjusted bucket
18.      PeterWildeford   M2347 in    5 buckets:    M200 per adjusted bucket
19.       MartinAscroft    M790 in    1 buckets:    M197 per adjusted bucket
20.         MattBuckley   M2278 in    5 buckets:    M194 per adjusted bucket

@chrisjbillington Any chance you’re willing to compute a leaderboard for masters?

@DanMan314 certainly. Will post when I get it

@DanMan314 Here we go, efficiency for masters-only:

Most efficient
==============
 1.                UFTG  M23466 in  169 buckets:    M112 per adjusted bucket
 2.       jacksonpolack M126839 in 1132 buckets:    M102 per adjusted bucket
 3.          EliLifland  M24432 in  272 buckets:     M75 per adjusted bucket
 4.     SemioticRivalry  M77921 in  977 buckets:     M72 per adjusted bucket
 5.         JonathanRay  M19728 in  253 buckets:     M65 per adjusted bucket
 6.        NamesAreHard  M21066 in  288 buckets:     M62 per adjusted bucket
 7.           Simon74fe  M34548 in  500 buckets:     M60 per adjusted bucket
 8.              Joshua  M99127 in 1990 buckets:     M46 per adjusted bucket
 9.     MaybeNotDepends   M4572 in   81 buckets:     M42 per adjusted bucket
10.                 Agh  M39172 in  844 buckets:     M42 per adjusted bucket
11.    chrisjbillington  M55212 in 1353 buckets:     M37 per adjusted bucket
12.          KevinBurke  M20293 in  491 buckets:     M36 per adjusted bucket
13.              travis  M14126 in  382 buckets:     M32 per adjusted bucket
14.     42irrationalist   M4806 in  126 buckets:     M30 per adjusted bucket
15.          1941159478   M8465 in  245 buckets:     M28 per adjusted bucket
16.              Mqrius   M6472 in  204 buckets:     M26 per adjusted bucket
17.   MarcusAbramovitch  M10273 in  368 buckets:     M24 per adjusted bucket
18.                jskf   M8376 in  298 buckets:     M23 per adjusted bucket
19.              Tossup   M8470 in  310 buckets:     M23 per adjusted bucket
20.     RobertCousineau  M16593 in  683 buckets:     M21 per adjusted bucket
21.                 ian   M4255 in  166 buckets:     M20 per adjusted bucket
22.          DylanSlagh   M7459 in  323 buckets:     M19 per adjusted bucket
23.       HenriThunberg  M12244 in  603 buckets:     M18 per adjusted bucket
24.          benshindel  M10100 in  492 buckets:     M18 per adjusted bucket
25.             Stralor   M6674 in  346 buckets:     M16 per adjusted bucket
26.  ChristopherRandles  M18356 in 1010 buckets:     M16 per adjusted bucket
27.             nickten  M10482 in  631 buckets:     M14 per adjusted bucket
28.           DanMan314   M7335 in  442 buckets:     M14 per adjusted bucket
29.             Rasmus1   M3582 in  233 buckets:     M12 per adjusted bucket
30.        JoshuaWilkes   M7909 in  548 buckets:     M12 per adjusted bucket
31.         UniversalFC   M2705 in  195 buckets:     M11 per adjusted bucket
32.        SimonGrayson   M1745 in  135 buckets:     M10 per adjusted bucket
33.            dionisos    M595 in   52 buckets:      M8 per adjusted bucket
34.            wylderai   M1023 in   98 buckets:      M8 per adjusted bucket
35.        JohannesKoch   M1107 in  112 buckets:      M7 per adjusted bucket
36.        PlasmaBallin   M3058 in  346 buckets:      M7 per adjusted bucket
37.            JamesLee   M2282 in  253 buckets:      M7 per adjusted bucket
38.                roma   M2785 in  335 buckets:      M7 per adjusted bucket
39.               Eliza   M4061 in  591 buckets:      M6 per adjusted bucket
40.          Dennis5a87     M22 in    1 buckets:      M5 per adjusted bucket
41.                Haws   M3516 in  653 buckets:      M4 per adjusted bucket
42.              deagol   M9216 in 1851 buckets:      M4 per adjusted bucket
43.          AndyMartin    M827 in  147 buckets:      M4 per adjusted bucket
44.       FranklinBaldo   M1035 in  189 buckets:      M4 per adjusted bucket
45.          SarkanyVar    M944 in  192 buckets:      M4 per adjusted bucket
46.          ScottSupak    M574 in  127 buckets:      M3 per adjusted bucket
47.       CamillePerrin   M1061 in  305 buckets:      M2 per adjusted bucket
48.               Ernie   M1645 in  547 buckets:      M2 per adjusted bucket
49.                Mira   M2498 in  924 buckets:      M2 per adjusted bucket
50.        Tyranizard89    M146 in   46 buckets:      M2 per adjusted bucket
51.      MatthewBarnett     M28 in   31 buckets:      M0 per adjusted bucket
52.          Blomfilter   -M594 in  355 buckets:     -M1 per adjusted bucket
53.                Nona    -M80 in   36 buckets:     -M1 per adjusted bucket
54.        mistersplice   -M481 in   65 buckets:     -M5 per adjusted bucket
55.       ZviMowshowitz  -M1313 in   76 buckets:    -M12 per adjusted bucket
56.                june  -M1557 in   84 buckets:    -M13 per adjusted bucket
57.           PeterOwen  -M2993 in  148 buckets:    -M16 per adjusted bucket
58.               dreev  -M6790 in  184 buckets:    -M30 per adjusted bucket
59.       ChrisPrichard  -M4855 in  118 buckets:    -M32 per adjusted bucket
60.                jack -M18329 in  398 buckets:    -M40 per adjusted bucket
61.                dgga -M19778 in  332 buckets:    -M51 per adjusted bucket
62.       firstuserhere -M129412 in 1117 buckets:   -M106 per adjusted bucket

I'm curious who #2 is though

@Joshua Well alright then! I'll try not to make an infinite series of these. Let me know if there is a better format you think would work for the next season, like "unlinked, top five resolve YES" or something.

@chrisjbillington Hopefullly you'll publish a top 20 list or something at some point!

@DanMan314 Certainly will!

Literally no idea who to put as initial answers but had to put something!