Resolves to the user who made the second most leagues profit (not "mana earned", not delta in all-time profit) per unit "adjusted" time in which they were active (made a bet, commented, or created a market) between the official start and end times in season 7.
"Adjusted" active time will be calculated as 10 minutes × (N + 3×sqrt(N)) where N is the number of ten-minute periods in which the user was active.
This is something like a three-sigma upper bound of a hypothetical underlying average number of ten minute periods in which a user was active, assuming the actual observed number of ten minute periods in which they were active is a drawn from a Poisson distribution.
This adjustment is designed to penalise statistical outliers who e.g. made Ṁ100 profit from a single bet, and thus had an extremely favourable rate of profit for the season due to chance (obviously there is still plenty of chance involved).
All accounts and activity are included in this question, bots, API trades, the lot.
In the case of a tie, the market resolves to an equal split of all tied users.
I'll resolve at market close using API data, and won't bet on this market.
In the case of duplicates, later-added answers will be ignored (I'll edit them to indicate this).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ23 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
Results!
@TannerG8 is the second most efficient by this metric. They made Ṁ3536 off of a single bet on an NFL game (though they also made a comment, so they were active in two buckets):
https://manifold.markets/market/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-swoop-a2b128aa2911
Resolves OTHER.
(note: the adjustment to active buckets to try to avoid this kind of outcome was obviously inadequate, and I'll use something different next time!)
Script used to calculate here: https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/86cf1dcd35df60ce5d2c7abb8b3bd9e1
Top 20 below:
Most efficient
==============
1. marcogiglio M62425 in 27 buckets: M1465 per adjusted bucket
2. TannerG8 M3536 in 2 buckets: M566 per adjusted bucket
3. LeonKarvecz M3346 in 2 buckets: M536 per adjusted bucket
4. RobBensinger M2687 in 2 buckets: M430 per adjusted bucket
5. Ali3d6a M1521 in 1 buckets: M380 per adjusted bucket
6. MichaelGreenberger M1497 in 1 buckets: M374 per adjusted bucket
7. MichaelMichaelson M1416 in 1 buckets: M354 per adjusted bucket
8. DawitFasika M1208 in 1 buckets: M302 per adjusted bucket
9. PaulCui M1114 in 1 buckets: M278 per adjusted bucket
10. JohnSmith9249 M2670 in 4 buckets: M267 per adjusted bucket
11. CactusBlue M1598 in 2 buckets: M256 per adjusted bucket
12. UrobuchiShinbo M2000 in 3 buckets: M244 per adjusted bucket
13. AlvinJuline M2662 in 5 buckets: M227 per adjusted bucket
14. CaShew M4397 in 10 buckets: M225 per adjusted bucket
15. mineralthrow M2186 in 4 buckets: M218 per adjusted bucket
16. Alex1a54 M1785 in 3 buckets: M217 per adjusted bucket
17. JamesGrugett M32332 in 123 buckets: M206 per adjusted bucket
18. PeterWildeford M2347 in 5 buckets: M200 per adjusted bucket
19. MartinAscroft M790 in 1 buckets: M197 per adjusted bucket
20. MattBuckley M2278 in 5 buckets: M194 per adjusted bucket
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