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MANIFOLD
What is causing the Optus telecommunications outage in Australia? [unlinked free-response]
8
Ṁ465Ṁ293
resolved Nov 8
ResolvedN/A
20%
Outside cyber-attack
22%
A software bug
21%
Damage to physical hardware
5%
Damage/malfunction due to the recent geomagnetic storm
5%
Insider sabotage (e.g. a disgruntled employee)
1.7%
Intentionally shut down on government request for national security reasons
3%
Someone forgot to pay a bill
10%
Configuration change
10%Other

Australia's second-largest mobile telecommunications provider, Optus, is currently experiencing a national service outage, with mobile phone and internet access unavailable for all customers, causing major disruption to business, finance, public transportation, and other important services

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-08/optus-outage-live-blog/103076996

What caused it?

I'll resolve all answers as we learn enough to rule them in or out, according to information published by reputable media sources, or otherwise to my judgement, or N/A answers that can't reasonably be ruled in or out by end of year.

Note that if a primary cause is identified, all other causes not known at that time will resolve NO - they will not remain open on the off chance that there were muliple causes not yet identified at the time the primary cause was identified.

Feel free to add answers that are more specific than existing answers. For example, I've already added "outside cyber-attack", but you might add "Cyber-attack by <entity>", and both can resolve YES if they're correct.

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Did your boost get refunded when you resolved N/A?

@Eliza No, I don't think so. I see the boost in the txns table, but not any refund. I see a Ṁ200 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT when the market resolved, that's just the creation costs being returned. An I see a -Ṁ36 CANCEL_UNIQUE_BETTOR_BONUS. No boost refund. I don't think it was used up either, since the boost I did to the replacement market took a long time before getting many hits.

@chrisjbillington I know that paid but unapplied subsidies don't get returned, or didn't at some earlier point (applied subsidy does). Seems like this is in the same class of 'bug'.

I feel like both should be refunded.

Sorry folks, I didn't make the market unlinked as planned. I've resolved N/A and re-made it, hopefully correctly this time:


Bad news, Chris. This is a linked market.

@Eliza Crap. N/Aing and re-doing. Thanks. Sorry, traders.