Mohammed Deif is the supreme military commander of Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas.
This market resolves YES on reliable international media reports of the killing or capture of Mohammed Deif by Israeli military forces in 2023, local time in Israel, or NO if he is alive and not captured at end of year.
If Deif's status cannot be ascertained to the satisfaction of the international community at end of year - for example: if Israel claims his capture or death, Hamas denies this, and neither provide compelling evidence, this market will resolve N/A.
In the case the outcome is not immediately clear, in establishing whether the international community has formed consensus on the status of Deif at end of year, I will turn to Wikipedia as an indication. If the article on Deif says it is not known whether he is alive or dead, or free or captive, that's a clear N/A. If it says he is believed to be dead or captured, that's a YES. If it says he is believed to be alive and free, that's a NO. I will ensure any statements in Wikipedia do not appear to be part of an edit war. If Wikipedia doesn't seem like it is living up to my expectations as a good indicator of the consensus view of the international community, I may use other sources.
As this may involve a judgement call, I will not bet in this market.
Corner cases: If Deif kills himself (assisted or otherwise) in order to avoid capture, the market will resolve YES. If he is killed by friendly fire or some other mishap during and related to an active battle with or or attack by Israeli forces, the market will resolve YES. If he dies due to some other mishap outside of a battle or attack and not caused by Israeli forces, or is intentionally killed by anyone other than Israeli forces (other than as a means to avoid capture) the market resolves NO.
Addendum Nov 11th: this market will resolve at the latest at end of year, given the state of public knowledge at that time. If Deif was killed/captured before the end of the year, but we don't find out about it until 2024, this market will still resolve NO.
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@MarcusAbramovitch They got close to Sinwar …
According to IDF, 1000 Hamas soldiers had been killed (in 1.5 months of combat), or 3% of ~30k of its manpower. There's roughly that much time left in the year. Assuming the same pace of casualty, another 3% will be killed by end of the year. If we extrapolate, the base rate of Deif being killed is just 3%.
Factors beyond the base rate: presumably IDF prioritizes capturing him over random Hamas personnel and they may strike harder when they move into southern Gaza. On the other hand, Deif receives special protection ... My view is the correct prob is no more than 10%.
@dgga Hamas political leaders are abroad. Deif and Sinwar are 100% directing things in Gaza
@dgga https://manifold.markets/Shump/is-mohammed-deif-in-gaza?r=U2h1bXA
Please do. I put a limit order.
I recommend postponing the closure date of this poll to Feb 2023. News of Deif's death or capture might not come out the day of, especially if he dies in one of the tunnels and his death needs to be verified.
@chatterchatty Ah, I'd rather not, traders will have assumed this one will resolve at end of year at the latest, which affects pricing.
If I remember to, I try to instead specify that markets like this will resolve as per the state of public knowledge at a certain time, rather than waiting. I'll add a clarification to the description saying this.
@chrisjbillington Wouldn't specifying that this will resolve as per the state of public knowledge at a certain time also affect pricing, since this wasn't stipulated? (e.g., I sold my shares following your reply, since I think it's quite a likely scenario that his death won't be reported until a few weeks after)
@chatterchatty Yes indeed. However, I would wager more traders assumed an end-of-year resolution at the latest than the possibility of the market remaining open for an additional month or so. By setting the close date how I did, I created those expectations, and I think sticking with it minimises how many people's expectations about resolution are violated.
What is the outcome if Deif is killed by Hamas as a means of surrendering, or by a Gazan operative paid for by Israel?
@chatterchatty I'll count it as YES if Israel hires a Gazan hitman - such a person might not be a member of the IDF but if they're working for Israel is seems in the spirit to include them.
What do you mean killed by Hamas as a means of surrendering? Like, others want to surrender but Deif doesn't, so there's a mutiny and they kill him? I'm thinking NO in that case.
Or like Israel gives Hamas an ultimatum, "kill him or else we kill all of you" or something, and they do? Not super sure but leaning toward NO in that case.
@chrisjbillington An Israeli newsperson has recently issued a message to Gazans saying "the war will end faster if you give us Sinwar" - I am mostly wondering if that would count as an Israeli kill, since it seems to be invoked by Israel.
@chatterchatty I see. No, I won't count that. A hand-over into Israeli captivity yes, killing, no. Interesting possibility though.
@mariopasquato No, only Israel.
Do you think there's much of a chance of that? I could make a separate market, but better stick to Israel only for this one as initially stated.
The exceptions I've carved out are if he's killed during a battle with/attack by Israeli forces, whether by mishap or friendly fire, that will count. This is just because being in a battle or attack increases the chances of a mishap, so there's a plausible causal link to still attributing this to Israeli forces. And if he kills himself to avoid capture (by Israeli forces), that counts.
I don´t think Mohammed Deif will be captured by 2023. If we compare how much time passed to capture/eliminate past terrorists as:
- Osama bin Laden (eliminated 10 years after 9/11 attack) [2001-2011]
- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (eliminated 5 years after publicly declared establishment of ISIS) [2014-2019]
- Ayman al-Zawahiri (eliminated 11 years after taking control of Al-Qaeda) [2011-2022]
It can be seen that the average time to take down a head terrorist is around 8 years.
That´s why I think unfortunately it will take longer than the end of 2023 to capture/eliminate him.
@CarlosMorales Deif has been Israel's most wanted man since 1995 according to Wikipedia, and Israel has made multiple attempts on his life. By the naive reference class forecasting you're suggesting, he's overdue for capture/death.