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MANIFOLD
How many Daily Lurking Users (7d average) did Manifold have on October 18th?
11
Ṁ695Ṁ519
resolved Oct 31
100%33%
700–1500
1.6%
0–100
6%
100–300
7%
300–700
22%
1500–3100
28%
3100–6300
2%
6300–∞

We know about Daily Active Users, but what about Daily Lurking Users?

A Daily Lurking User is a logged-in user who used the site (loaded a page, scrolled through some comments, clicked basically anything) on a given day (Pacific Daylight Time) without placing a bet, commenting, or creating a market.

The numerical ranges in the answers are inclusive of their lower-bound and exclusive of their upper bound. (bins are logarithmically equally spaced - each bin is twice as wide as the previous bin).

I have some cached data from Manifold's /events table (from before it was recently made non-public), that I will use to resolve this. It includes data up to the end of October 18th, Pacific Time. I only saved data mapping user ids to event timestamps, so I don't know what type of event each event was or anything else, only what time it occured. Thus to exclude active users, I'll calculate the 7d average of daily users performing an event for the week ending Oct 18th, and then subtract the daily active users 7d average for Oct 18th as per https://manifold.markets/stats, which was 2037.

I have not calculated anything yet and have no feel for how the number will come out, so my choice of bins should not be considered insider info.

I won't bet on this market, and will leave it open for a week before resolving.

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The number was 1083. Resolves to 700-1500.

Edited to change the date to Oct 18th - sorry, my data doesn't quite go up to the end of October 19th PDT, so it'll have to be the 18th.