Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI after his vacation?
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193
Ṁ220k
resolved Nov 17
Resolved
YES

Greg Brockman is taking a sabbatical through the end of the year: https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1820644694264791459

Will he return to OpenAI at the end of it (and continue working)? I will resolve this market within 2 months of the end of the year.

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sold Ṁ7,817 YES

@Fay42 I'm fine with resolving this to yes, but ideally I was waiting for some amount of confirmation of actual work being done by Greg Brockman.

It's not uncommon for senior leaders at a company going on a sabbatical to "come back", not do much, and then leave a month later.

In this case, his public proclamation that he's back makes that less likely, but it was the situation I was worried about.

@Agh why did you resolve this to yes? the market creator set the resolve date to March 2025 and said they were "waiting for some amount of confirmation of actual work being done by Greg Brockman" the question description clearly states "Will he return to OpenAI at the end of it" (and continue working)?" it's not yet clear if he's actually going to return successfully and continue working. The Information titled their article "Can Greg Brockman Find a Future Back at OpenAI?", which implies uncertainty about that.

Did something happen at OpenAI causing him to return earlier than intended?

bought Ṁ1,326 YES

lol this is literally free money, wish my balance were higher

(and that this were real money)

@MaxMusing you so fast lol

@salexashenko This should only resolve if he returns AND continues working– i.e. he comes back and stays until at least March 2025. (the resolution date of the market) There's a significant chance that after returning he won't continue!

does return mean he is still employed and the timespan has ended? or does it need to be a reasonable belief that he is actively working at the company on things related to making AI stuff go

Reasonable belief that he is actively working at the company, which is why the resolution date is 2 months past the end of the year.

bought Ṁ700 YES

(:

bought Ṁ30 NO

Looks like he's taking the exit in a way that does minimal damage to the company

Hot take: there won't be an OpenAI for him to return to

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