Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the date when any of the universities commonly referred to as HYPSM—Harvard University, Yale University, Princeton University, Stanford University, or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology—falls out of the top 10 in the U.S. News & World Report's "Best National Universities" rankings. The rankings are typically released annually in September. The resolution date will correspond to the publication date of the rankings in which the first of these institutions is ranked 11th or lower. If none of these universities fall out of the top 10 by the 2030 rankings, the market will resolve to "N/A."

Background

HYPSM universities have consistently occupied top positions in national and global university rankings, reflecting their academic excellence, research output, and reputation. However, recent federal policy changes have introduced financial and operational challenges for these institutions. The Trump administration has implemented significant cuts to federal research funding, affecting agencies like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). For instance, the NIH's budget was reduced by $18 billion, and the NSF faced a $4.9 billion cut, impacting numerous research programs and grants. (forbes.com)

Additionally, the administration has increased taxes on investment income from large university endowments. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" introduced a tiered tax system, with rates up to 8% for institutions with substantial endowments, potentially affecting financial resources for universities like those in HYPSM. (en.wikipedia.org)

These financial pressures have led to hiring freezes, reductions in graduate admissions, and layoffs across various universities. For example, Stanford University laid off over 360 employees, citing budget constraints influenced by federal education funding policies. (reuters.com)

Considerations

While HYPSM universities have substantial endowments and diverse funding sources, the cumulative effect of federal funding cuts, increased taxation, and operational challenges could impact their financial stability and academic offerings. These factors may influence their positions in future university rankings, which consider metrics such as financial resources, faculty qualifications, and research output.