Will a member of the House of Representatives or a Senator do a backflip by the end of the 118th Congress?

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Ṁ235

2025

13%

chance

ALL

1. They can do a backflip anywhere they want to
2. The backflip has to be successful
3. There has to be recorded footage of a Congressperson doing a backflip that isn't AI generated.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ12 YES

Way too low, even if this has a 1 in 535 chance of happening, it will happen based on the scope of Congress alone.

Actually it wouldn't be that hard to mail every congressperson under the age of 55 until we get a taker.

Would it qualify if there is footage of Mitch McConnell doing a backflip 30 years ago?

@Nadja_L nope

This question is fantastic. I can't find any evidence of previous backflips so I'm betting low on baserates. If one of you knows a congressperson and wants to take my mana I will be delighted to lose it.

Does it have to be on the floor of the House or Senate (hilarious, but very unlikely) or can it be in a gym/other location in which backflipping is less unexpected?
Does it have to be a successful backflip, or does a failed attempt count?
I don't think AI has gotten good enough to make a believable fake video of a Congressperson doing a backflip, but just in case: what sources are you using to verify that this has actually happened?

(I love the question, BTW. Perfect balance of "weirdly specific and silly" and "there's probably actually a non-zero chance of this happening.")

@evergreenemily

1. They can do a backflip anywhere they want to
2. The backflip has to be successful
3. There has to be recorded footage of a Congressperson doing a backflip that isn't AI generated. Hopefully the media picks up on it or I just scan social media by myself to find someone successfully doing a backflip