Will a member of the House of Representatives or a Senator do a backflip by the end of the 118th Congress?
8
122
190
2025
9%
chance

1. They can do a backflip anywhere they want to
2. The backflip has to be successful
3. There has to be recorded footage of a Congressperson doing a backflip that isn't AI generated.

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bought Ṁ1 of YES

Would it qualify if there is footage of Mitch McConnell doing a backflip 30 years ago?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

This question is fantastic. I can't find any evidence of previous backflips so I'm betting low on baserates. If one of you knows a congressperson and wants to take my mana I will be delighted to lose it.

  • Does it have to be on the floor of the House or Senate (hilarious, but very unlikely) or can it be in a gym/other location in which backflipping is less unexpected?

  • Does it have to be a successful backflip, or does a failed attempt count?

  • I don't think AI has gotten good enough to make a believable fake video of a Congressperson doing a backflip, but just in case: what sources are you using to verify that this has actually happened?

(I love the question, BTW. Perfect balance of "weirdly specific and silly" and "there's probably actually a non-zero chance of this happening.")

@evergreenemily

1. They can do a backflip anywhere they want to
2. The backflip has to be successful
3. There has to be recorded footage of a Congressperson doing a backflip that isn't AI generated. Hopefully the media picks up on it or I just scan social media by myself to find someone successfully doing a backflip

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