Will Canada's Liberal Party win the June 24th federal by-election for Toronto-St. Paul's?
resolved Jun 25

The federal riding of Toronto-St. Paul's is holding a by-election on 24 June. The seat was left vacant in January by the resignation of Carolyn Bennett of the Liberal Party of Canada, who had held the seat for the Liberals since 1997.

The by-election is happening during a polling slump for the Liberals (Canada338 has Toronto-St. Paul's as Liberal "leaning" rather than "likely" or "safe") and may be a political test for Justin Trudeau.

Electoral reform activists, as part of the Long Ballot Initiative, have pushed to make the ballot the longest in Canadian history, with 77 candidates having registered.

Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the June 24th federal by-election for Toronto-St. Paul's?

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The Conservatives have won the by-election for Toronto-St. Paul's by around 500 votes according to final tally by Elections Canada. Resolving this question NO.

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Preliminary results for the by-election from Elections Canada has Liberals leading the Conservatives in by a little less than 500 votes (3,540 to 3,046) with 34% of polls reporting.


Toronto's by-election is tomorrow. 338Canada's latest projection for a federal election, updated yesterday, has the Liberals at 75% chance of winning and the Conservatives at 25%.

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This is a liberal safe seat; they won it by >5 % in during their last low-ebb in 2011, and while by-elections are inherently high-variance, the only real way the liberals could lose this is arrogance/taking the riding for granted. Given the polling, I sincerely doubt they will take any risks.

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