oh my god... I really didn't like "A Minecraft Movie"...

lol, lotta people confident in Minecraft all of a sudden

@polymathematic nothing else is coming out this year that will compete.

@Drifting sure, but that was also apparent four weeks ago.

@polymathematic People thought Wicked and Zootopia would make more at the box office. Both of those came out within the last 2 weeks. Christmas doesn’t really have any hyped releases except for Marty Supreme which won’t out preform any kids movies this year.

@Drifting Forgot about Avatar 3, but imo the hype doesn’t seem there for Avatar

@Drifting there’s a little movie called Avatar coming out I think.

@Drifting people, and I speak chiefly of the polymarket page, were dramatically overestimating zootopia and wicked. Hence my amusement that Minecraft’s gone from sub15 to 90 in a week on extremely foreseeable results.

@polymathematic right, I put avatar in a second comment, my b. Avatar is expected to have $100 million opening weekend. Minecraft did $150 million opening weekend. Avatar will also be competing with more movies during its release than Minecraft was.

@polymathematic I think whatever movie wins this year is really just going to come down to rewatchablity. Avatar is 3+ hours and comes out 2 weeks before the end of the year. Minecraft came out when nothing was really competing and was sub 2 hours, so I assume its box office numbers were inflated by repeat viewings. Wicked I thought would have more repeats but it just wasn’t a very good movie.

Why is wicked for good the favorite? Presale numbers?

@generalconsensus yeah (1) if wicked 2 can ~match the pace of wicked 1, then that should be enough to pass minecraft, & (2) the presale numbers look good, so (1) + (2) is the main story here.

there's still a fair amount of uncertainty with that story—you could imagine a sequel being much more frontloaded (since awareness is much higher), so beating the original's OW might not imply it keeps pace (as wicked 1 had insanely strong domestic legs, so if people are just a little less enthusiastic about wicked 2 it might not hold as well).

@Ziddletwix understood thank you! What’s the best resource for pre sale numbers?

@Ziddletwix NO order for minecraft @ 30% up (or YES for wicked at 28%)

@Ziddletwix shucks i misread another market and filled your order, incorrectly thinking you disagreed with the more efficient market, you win

@Bayesian I’m offended. I’m personally keeping all the markets efficient. Plus a chaos factor I will not reveal.

bettors note this is calendar gross (a very large disadvantage for avatar)

@Ziddletwix oh! That got me, I did not see that at all. I guess I’d better hope for a truly massive opening :)