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MANIFOLD
In what month will Zvi be automated?
2
Ṁ1.3kṀ70
resolved Sep 23
Resolved
N/A
7%
Sep 2026
8%
Oct 2026
21%
Nov 2026
8%
Dec 2026
7%
Jan 2027
7%
Feb 2027
7%
Mar 2027
7%
Apr 2027
7%
May 2027
7%
Jun 2027
7%
Jul 2027
7%
Aug 2027

Resolution criteria

Resolves to month in which Don't Worry About the Vase articles can be written by AI with same level of depth, insight, and rigour as @ZviMowshowitz. A custom harness is allowed (I would like this to happen!). It must write full articles, and be judged by me, Zvi, or 51%+ Manifold poll if neither of the former are available to comment as being of consistently adequate replacement quality.

(I might flesh out "consistently adequate replacement quality" in the future and trade on this market once it is fleshed out).

Context
Zvi Mowshowitz writes Don't Worry About the Vase, one of the most-read Substacks about AI. He is known for his weekly AI roundups, which are often very long and link to hundreds of source. He writes long posts about new model releases, AI safety, AI policy, and other topics such as economics, game design, and prediction markets. However, with the increasing pace of AI progress, it is starting to become more difficult for Zvi to keep up. When will AI relieve Zvi of this burden?

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