Will U.S. Secret Service Director Cheatle resign / be fired within 2 months of Trump's assassination attempt?

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resolved Jul 23

Resolved

YES

ALL

Congress launched an investigation into the July 13th shooting after serious questions have been raised. Will U.S. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle leave / be removed from her post by 13 September?

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Claude 3.5’s analysis:

(Per @elf )

Note the arbitration opportunity with this market: https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-kimberly-cheatle-rem

[Metaculus] Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?

54% chance. Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26175/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if Kimberly Cheatle remains Director of the United States Secret Service continuously through the end of September 30, 2024, Eastern Time. The question will resolve as No if before October 1, 2024, there has been an official announcement from the government that Cheatle is no longer the director, including temporarily. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

(Granted, they can both resolve NO since this one resolves sooner, but if this one is YES, that one is NO, and if that one is YES, this one is NO.)

There were four counter-sniper teams but no one thought of getting a drone to surveil the nearest rooftop. Ridiculous. Someone should definitely be fired.