Resolves YES if OpenAI publicly acknowledges this data being particularly useful for training further iterations of GPT4 or different successors, or trustworthy leaks (my credence), stating that this was an integral component of success.
Resolves NO if other factors (architecture, training techniques, other token sources) are judged as having been largely more important.
Resolves N/A if market closes and question is unsanswerable due to insufficient information being public.
Update 2025-08-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Creator reports no public statements or leaks crediting ChatGPT conversation history as a primary driver.
Will resolve NO imminently unless YES holders provide qualifying evidence (OpenAI public acknowledgment or trustworthy leaks) that it was an integral/primary component of success.
In the absence of such evidence, default resolution will be NO rather than N/A.
1,000I've done a decent bit of legwork looking for any proof that this is the case. But 1. OpenAI is very secretive about their training methodology and 2. I haven't found any public statements or leaks attributing conversation history as a primary driver for progress.
So I'll resolve NO tomorrow (or whenever I notice this needs resolving again) unless any YES holders have evidence they want to put forward.
@MatthewRitter I think if there was significant evidence that it was 20% of performance improvement I would still count that!