Will ChatGPT conversation history be critical to the success of future OpenAI models? (Ṁ200 subsidy)
14
233
Ṁ350Ṁ450
2025
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if OpenAI publicly acknowledges this data being particularly useful for training further iterations of GPT4 or different successors, or trustworthy leaks (my credence), stating that this was an integral component of success.
Resolves NO if other factors (architecture, training techniques, other token sources) are judged as having been largely more important.
Resolves N/A if market closes and question is unsanswerable due to insufficient information being public.
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@MatthewRitter I think if there was significant evidence that it was 20% of performance improvement I would still count that!
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