Resolves to the quarter in which the model could reasonably described as being released. Feel free to posit grey area release scenarios and we can reach a consensus.
Map of what events qualify to resolve this market to the current quarter:
Released to the public? YES
Open Beta? YES
Paid but otherwire open service? YES
Leaked weights that have been packaged to be usable by laymen? YES
Leaked weights that are useless? NO
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released? YES
Closed Beta with proof of >=10,000 users? YES
Closed Beta with no proof of user number? NO
Closed Beta with <10,000 users? NO
Limited researcher only release? NO
Map of what events immediately resolve to Never Released:
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released? NO
Project renamed and takes vastly different direction? YES
Project cancelled? YES
Not released by 2025? YES
Model explicitly permanently not released due to risks? YES
1,000
3.00@JonasVollmer i think it should have resolved N/A, i don't like the way the question author has decided to resolve this question against the spirit of how a bunch of people were interpreting it
The issue is that this is only a partial release. According to Google, Gemini contains Gemini Pro, Gemini Ultra, and Gemini Nano. Only Gemini Pro was released today and others aren't expected until 2024. So the resolution of this market is ambiguous because "release" doesn't specify whether that's a full or partial release.
@Jacy Yeah, I personally was reading the question as "Google's most advanced model that aims to beat GPT-4", and was predicting NO based on thinking that the safety checking would take longer—which is indeed the reason why Ultra isn't released now. It seems that Ultra is probably the thing that everyone has been waiting for, not Pro (though I haven't experimented with it a lot yet).
I wonder how others read the question?