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@AaronBreckenridge This can be resolved

https://apnews.com/article/european-central-bank-interest-rates-inflation-recession-1b7ad9f3f6e9522de05d7b3c1f93e437
maybe Fed wil raise too (next Meeting around 19-20.Sept)

Europe's central bank hikes interest rates again even as threat of recession grows

The European Central Bank has piled on a 10th straight interest rate increase. It's pressing forward in its fight against stubbornly high inflation that's been plaguing consumers, even as worries grow that higher borrowing costs could help push the economy into recession.

@zedmelody CME FedWatchtool showing 3%

@BillyGmoney thx, didn't know this tool exists 😊

August inflation came in slightly hot, 3.7% compared to 3.6% expected, and up from 3.2% in July.

@chrisjbillington trying to goad people to inflate the YES a bit? that was a cheeky joke btw. i appreciate the new info, but I don't think they'll raise anything based on it

@AdamTreat I would never!

One for the next meeting:

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-i?r=Y2hyaXNqYmlsbGluZ3Rvbg

Will the Fed raise interest rates in the October-November 2023 meeting?

50% chance. The FOMC is scheduled to meet Oct 31st to Nov 1st. This market resolves YES if at this meeting the FOMC decides to increase the federal funds rate target range. If the meeting is delayed, the market will resolve instead on any change to the target range announced in November, or NO if there is no such announcement by end of November. In the unlikely case that the FOMC adjusts the upper and lower limits of the federal funds rate target range by different amounts, this market will resolve on whether the midpoint of the range moves upwards or not.

@SirCryptomind Fed funds futures traders are putting all of the increased probability of higher rates into future FOMC meetings, pricing for the Sep meeting did not budge.